A premonition? "This would take us a hundred years back to 1917..."

“It's pretty clear that Russia will become poorer and more technologically backward, the choices for its citizens will be radically diminished and for many, many years to come,” Alden said.

Russia's ties to the global economy are rapidly unwinding as crushing sanctions and the Kremlin's response upend decades of post-Soviet reforms.

Echo essay published in The Hill: Russia's efforts to salvage economy could have devastating impacts, by Sylvan Lane and Karl Evers-Hillstrom

In fact, the Kremlin announced strict banking and export limits meant to prop up its currency’s plunging value, at the expense of foreigners. 

Moscow has also pledged to seize the assets of any business leaving Russia and allow its companies to steal Western patents. Experts say the fallout could last long after the war in Ukraine ends and tarnish Russia's standing for decades, even if sanctions are eased.

“Measures like this are going to stay in place for a long time. I think this is going to cut Russia off from access to Western finance, trade and investment for years, if not decades, to come,” said Edward Alden, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The conclusion will be now that Russia is both an immediate and long-term threat to European and American security, and economic ties with Russia are going to strengthen Russia, and anything that strengthens Russia is dangerous for the West,” he added.

President Biden announced the U.S. and Europe would end normalized trade relations with Moscow and seek its removal from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the latest blow to the Russian economy. Also, President Biden announced that the United States would ban certain iconic Russian imports, such as vodka and seafood, amid growing pressure from lawmakers.

Kicking Russia out of the World Trade Organization, and ending normalized trade relations would subject Russian exports to higher tariffs and trade barriers.

The Russian Revolution of 1917, one of the most momentous developments in modern history. It involved masses of “ordinary” laboring people doing something so extraordinary—overturning oppressive rulers, pushing aside their exploiters, and trying to create something new—a society of the free and the equal. It is to be expected that when people seek to make sense of such a story, sparks will fly.

Experts say the decision has a limited economic impact, especially as sanctions limit trade between the nations, but sends an important message to the Kremlin.

“It’s not going to be a huge punch, candidly, just because of the nature of the trade flows and the actions we've already taken,” said Emily Kilcrease, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

“Nonetheless, you're doing it with allies, so that will boost the economic impact. And I do think it's a really important step to show that we're not going to let Russia freeride on a rules-based system without actually being constrained by it,” she added.

New Planet, 1921 by Konstantin Yuon: painting of the Russian Revolution of 1917, depicts it as a cosmic event: the birth of a new world. The people are in commotion, filled with awe, perhaps fear. Yuon's scene was intended for a theatre curtain, which may explain its dramatic appearance. Source: The State Tretyakov Gallery.

The move to end normal trade relations follows weeks of deepening economic pain in Russia. Extreme steps have been taken by the Kremlin in Moscow and the Russian Central Bank, to prevent the Russian Ruble from even further devaluation and retaliate against crushing Western sanctions.

Moreover, the Kremlin and Russian Central Bank have taken extreme steps to prevent the worthless Russian Ruble from further devaluation and retaliate against crushing Western sanctions. 

Russia announced it will halt its foreign exports of grain, ban the purchase of dollars and other foreign currencies and limit the amount of foreign currency Russians can withdraw from their bank accounts.

Furthermore, Russia has frozen its battered stock market since the start of the invasion to prevent investors from pulling their funds. Russia has also begun to default on its bond payments, causing its credit rating to plunge amid a mass exodus of foreign businesses.

In response to sanctions and public outcry, more than 300 multinational corporations have suspended some or all of their operations in Russia, including iconic American brands such as Apple, Visa, McDonald’s, Disney and Coca-Cola. Russian citizens are no longer able to use many of their credit cards, watch Netflix shows or even purchase new electronics.

“It's pretty clear that Russia will become poorer and more technologically backward, the choices for its citizens will be radically diminished and for many, many years to come,” Alden said.

“That's an astonishing series of penalties in a very short period of time,” Alden added.

Putin has vowed to seek “legal solutions” to seize the assets of Western companies that leave the country. The Kremlin aims to take control of businesses with foreign ownership of 25 percent or more and then auction them off to Russian investors. (Maine Writer- So, how will those potential Russian investors pay for these auctioned businesses?)

Moscow is already refusing to return hundreds of airplanes it leased from Western companies, which have a combined value of $10 billion. Russian lawmakers are also weighing taking over auto plants owned by Ford, Stellantis, General Motors, Volkswagen and Toyota, among others, and multibillion-dollar energy projects partially owned by ExxonMobil and BP.

U.S. business leaders and even one of Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs say that the move will effectively bring an end to international investment in Russia, potentially causing permanent damage to the country that would linger even if sanctions were eventually lifted.

"This would take us a hundred years back, to the year 1917, and the consequences of such a step would be the global distrust of Russia from investors, it would be felt for many decades," Russian billionaire Vladimir Potanin said in a statement Friday on the Telegram messaging app.

Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation’s top corporate lobbying group, said in a statement that such a step “would only add to Russia’s increasing isolation, show its disregard for the rule of law, and ultimately inflict more pain on the Russian people.”

Worsening investors' fears, the Kremlin is greenlighting a rule that allows Russian firms to steal intellectual property from companies that are home to “unfriendly” nations such as the U.S. and its allies. Under the Kremlin’s plans, Russian oligarchs could take over assets such as Coca-Cola’s bottling factories or Ford’s commercial van manufacturing plant and attempt to continue to manufacture and sell those products under the existing brand.

Russia's ties to the global economy are rapidly unwinding as crushing sanctions and the Kremlin's response upend decades of post-Soviet reforms.

President Biden announced the U.S. and Europe would end normalized trade relations with Moscow and seek its removal from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the latest blow to the Russian economy. He also announced the U.S. would ban certain iconic Russian imports, such as vodka and seafood, amid growing pressure from lawmakers.

Kicking Russia out of the WTO and ending normalized trade relations would subject Russian exports to higher tariffs and trade barriers.

In response to sanctions and public outcry, more than 300 multinational corporations have suspended some or all of their operations in Russia, including iconic American brands such as Apple, Visa, McDonald’s, Disney and Coca-Cola. Russian citizens are no longer able to use many of their credit cards, watch Netflix shows or even purchase new electronics.

“It's pretty clear that Russia will become poorer and more technologically backward, the choices for its citizens will be radically diminished and for many, many years to come,” Alden said.

“That's an astonishing series of penalties in a very short period of time,” Alden added.

Putin has vowed to seek “legal solutions” to seize the assets of Western companies that leave the country. The Kremlin aims to take control of businesses with foreign ownership of 25 percent or more and then auction them off to Russian investors.

Moscow is already refusing to return hundreds of airplanes it leased from Western companies, which have a combined value of $10 billion. Russian lawmakers are also weighing taking over auto plants owned by Ford, Stellantis, General Motors, Volkswagen and Toyota, among others, and multibillion-dollar energy projects partially owned by ExxonMobil and BP.

U.S. business leaders and even one of Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs say that the move will effectively bring an end to international investment in Russia, potentially causing permanent damage to the country that would linger even if sanctions were eventually lifted.

"This would take us a hundred years back, to the year 1917, and the consequences of such a step would be the global distrust of Russia from investors, it would be felt for many decades," Russian billionaire Vladimir Potanin said in a statement Friday on the Telegram messaging app.

Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation’s top corporate lobbying group, said in a statement that such a step “would only add to Russia’s increasing isolation, show its disregard for the rule of law, and ultimately inflict more pain on the Russian people.”

Worsening investor fears, the Kremlin is greenlighting a rule that allows Russian firms to steal intellectual property from companies that are home to “unfriendly” nations, such as the U.S. and its allies. Under the Kremlin’s plans, Russian oligarchs could take over assets such as Coca-Cola’s bottling factories or Ford’s commercial van manufacturing plant and attempt to continue to manufacture and sell those products under the existing brand.

Steven Fox, founder and CEO of Veracity Worldwide, a consulting firm that advises businesses on geopolitical and regulatory risks, said the controversial moves amount to a “nail in the coffin” for foreign investor appetite in Russia.

Russian Ruble Currency Crash

“There were always questions with regard to the rule of law in Russia from an investment perspective, and intellectual property theft has long been a concern,” Fox said. “Now, that’s all out in the open, there’s not even a semblance of law.”

Russia's ties to the global economy are rapidly unwinding as crushing sanctions and the Kremlin's response upend decades of post-Soviet reforms.

The Kremlin announced strict banking and export limits meant to prop up its currency’s plunging value this week at the expense of foreigners. Moscow has also pledged to seize the assets of any business leaving Russia and allow its companies to steal Western patents.

“The conclusion will be now that Russia is both an immediate and long-term threat to European and American security, and economic ties with Russia are going to strengthen Russia, and anything that strengthens Russia is dangerous for the West,” he added.

President Biden announced the U.S. and Europe would end normalized trade relations with Moscow and seek its removal from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the latest blow to the Russian economy. He also announced the U.S. would ban certain iconic Russian imports, such as vodka and seafood, amid growing pressure from lawmakers.

Kicking Russia out of the WTO and ending normalized trade relations would subject Russian exports to higher tariffs and trade barriers.

Experts say the decision has a limited economic impact, especially as sanctions limit trade between the nations, but sends an important message to the Kremlin.

“It’s not going to be a huge punch, candidly, just because of the nature of the trade flows and the actions we've already taken,” said Emily Kilcrease, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

“Nonetheless, you're doing it with allies, so that will boost the economic impact. And I do think it's a really important step to show that we're not going to let Russia freeride on a rules-based system without actually being constrained by it,” she added.

The move to end normal trade relations follows weeks of deepening economic pain in Russia.

The Kremlin and Russian Central Bank have taken extreme steps to prevent the ruble from further devaluation and retaliate against crushing Western sanctions. Russia announced it will halt its foreign exports of grain, ban the purchase of dollars and other foreign currencies and limit the amount of foreign currency Russians can withdraw from their bank accounts.

Russia has frozen its battered stock market since the start of the invasion to prevent investors from pulling their funds. Russia has also begun to default on its bond payments, causing its credit rating to plunge amid a mass exodus of foreign businesses.

In response to sanctions and public outcry, more than 300 multinational corporations have suspended some or all of their operations in Russia, including iconic American brands such as Apple, Visa, McDonald’s, Disney and Coca-Cola. Russian citizens are no longer able to use many of their credit cards, watch Netflix shows or even purchase new electronics.

“It's pretty clear that Russia will become poorer and more technologically backward, the choices for its citizens will be radically diminished and for many, many years to come,” Alden said.

“There were always questions with regard to the rule of law in Russia from an investment perspective, and intellectual property theft has long been a concern,” Fox said. “Now, that’s all out in the open, there’s not even a semblance of law.”

Experts do not think that Russia will find success replicating corporations’ activities. Moreover, the Biden administration has pledged to respond with even more sanctions if Russia follows through with its nationalization and patent plans.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki warned the Kremlin against seizing company assets, repeating business leaders’ warnings of economic catastrophe.

“Any lawless decision by Russia to seize the assets of these companies will ultimately result in even more economic pain for Russia,” Psaki tweeted. “It will compound the clear message to the global business community that Russia is not a safe place to invest and do business.”

Donald Trump's magnetic attraction to Vladimir Putin is generated by greed and racism

1 Russian Ruble = 0.0141345USD

Maine Writer - Obviously I am not an economist, but it's obvious that the Russian economy is in collapse.  Just check the value of a Russian Ruble if converted to US currency.  In fact, the Russian Ruble is junk.  In this Chris Roberts essay, the case is made that Trump's obsession with Vladimir Putin is rooted in the potential for investmet opportunities in Moscow, where political demographics are in line with his own myopic, limited vision of the world according to him, rather than in driven by kompromat theories.  

An echo opinion published in the New York Observer: 

The Very Conspicuous, 760-Mile-Long Hole in the Trump-Russia Conspiracy

https://observer.com/2019/05/trump-russia-conspiracy-nord-stream-2-pipeline/

By Chris Roberts (An interesting point of view under a political economic lens.)

Russia, John McCain once said, is a gas station masquerading as a country. Rude, and false. Gas stations don’t have nuclear weapons, nor are they trying to conquer any nearby convenience stores. Petroleum products account for 59 percent of Russia’s exports, meaning Vladimir Putin is in charge of a one-note economy almost as addicted to fossil fuel as Saudi Arabia.

How reliant Russia is on the flow of oil and gas to Europe was made painfully obvious last month when officials in nearby Belarus noticed that oil tainted with organic chlorides, a contaminant often used to coax the last drops out of exhausted wells that can cause serious problems at refineries, was flowing through the Druzhba pipeline. Delivery of up to 1.4 million barrels of oil a day to customers in eastern and central Europe was halted. Russia was out $500 million a day in lost revenue. Rather than cop to delivering bad product—which would be very bad for long-term business prospects and could mean Russian wells have gone bad—Russian officials are claiming sabotage.

Keep in mind that even when the Druzhba is running clean, Russia’s economy is barely slogging along, a wheezing bear badly in need of a break. The country’s GDP shrank between 2014 and 2017 thanks to erratic oil prices and U.S. sanctions imposed after Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

If someone wanted to hit Russia where it hurt, they would mess with oil and gas exports. Which is exactly what Donald Trump and the supposed puppet of Vladimir Putin has spent most of the last year doing.

This week, it was announced that a bipartisan group of U.S. senators are working on more sanctions that would apply to companies working on the pipeline and their executives. There isn’t much agreement between Donald Trump and Democrats in Congress, but they agree that Nord Stream 2 is bad news.

Large pipes for the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 2 sit in a storage area at the Sassnitz Ferry Port.

Nord Stream 2 sit in a storage area at the Sassnitz Ferry Port. Ulrich Baumgarten via Getty Images

How does any of this square with the Russiagate conspiracy that’s dominated Rachel Maddow broadcasts and #Resistance Twitter feeds for most of the past two years? It doesn’t. 

Nord Stream 2 is an enormous and unexplained hole in the otherwise neat theory that relieves the U.S. of the psychic weight of electing a mumbling xenophobic leader. If Trump was on Putin’s payroll, or Russia had dirt on him, or something, or whatever, why would Trump be gleefully costing Russia money it doesn’t have?

It is true that Trump dislikes Angela Merkel, a woman leader, and so it could be that his big dumb boy act is there just to cause her trouble. But Russia really needs the German’s money. They may actually need the money from selling gas to Germany more than Germany needs the gas, according to Michael McFaul, the former U.S. ambassador to Russia. McFaul, remember, is the same guy that Putin half-jokingly asked Trump to turn over to Russia for questioning.

According to an analysis by one of McFaul’s colleagues at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, Trump and Merkel tussling over Nord Stream 2 does help Putin because it weakens the sinews of the 70-year-old NATO alliance—the military bloc still staring Putin down and the likeliest opposition force to someday, maybe, enter Ukraine and put a stop to his revanchist project there.

And if Germany does cave and agrees to stop shopping Russian, the likeliest alternative is liquefied natural gas shipped from the gas-abundant United States. So, this theory goes, any influence Putin has over Trump is outweighed by DT45’s desire to boost the American fossil fuel sector.

Dedicated game theorists might tell you that all this noise—and attention on the real cost to Russia, which has to pay Ukraine transmission fees to use a pipeline there, as long as Nord Stream 2 isn’t open—is just an elaborate ploy to distract you from what’s really going on.

The counterfactuals here are clear, they are not new, and they need addressing if this isn’t to be dismissed as time wasting. If Trump is in Putin’s pocket, why has the Trump administration expanded the ruinous Obama-era sanctions? Why is Trump continuing to make things worse for Putin, with whom he absolutely enjoys a very bizarre relationship? It makes no sense. It is something no Russiagate true believer can satisfactorily explain.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are both relatively straightforward dudes. They demand and reward loyalty, they are sensitive control freaks.

Putin, the frustrated former mid-career spy who segued into a career in ruthless kleptocratic politics, likes expensive sweatsuits and hates risk. Cobbling together a pact with Trump, a half-sentient egomaniac with no self control, is not a low-risk endeavor.

Trump likely legitimately admires Putin for the simplest of reasons: Trump, a serial bullshitter who hates rules, likes tough guys who don’t take any shit and don’t bother with niceties. Putin is all that, and he’s also president of a country that happens to be filled with Slavic women, Donald Trump’s type.

To explain the tower project in Moscow that Trump coveted with a convoluted conspiracy, you have to somehow rule out the simplest reasons, which are: There is money to be made in Moscow, a relatively clean and orderly and mostly white place filled with slick billionaires and beautiful, high-maintenance women. Moscow is a cleaner and whiter Las Vegas. Moscow is a Donald Trump fantasy. Erase the last three years of history, or rewrite it so Trump loses on Election Night, and the Moscow dream still makes perfect sense.

Laid out like this, Russia in Trump’s eyes emerges as a very attractive investment opportunity. 

“But aha!” you say. “Why did Vladimir Putin want Donald Trump elected?” This, too, can be explained in simple and personal terms. Putin hates Hillary Clinton. Putin knew electing Trump would create mischief and disrupt American power, thus creating opportunity through chaos.

All of this can be true without there being a real pee tape, or collusion, or Russian spies in Trump’s Cabinet. Like his one-track father, Donald Trump Jr. was probably simple-minded enough to not really care where dirt on Hillary Clinton came from.

It may yet emerge that Russia has some undue influence on Trump, a simple grifter who has floated through life on his father’s money. That is not the simple explanation, and thus the unlikeliest. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is very gleefully and very seriously threatening the vitality of the Russian economy—and, with it, the stability of the Russian state. This is not something puppets generally do.
Filed Under: Politics, International Politics, National Politics, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, John McCain, Vladimir Putin, Robert Mueller, Trump Russia Investigation, Rachel Maddow

Russian return on investment - election espionage

"Russia if you're listening," Donald J. Trump, 2016

(Information literacy is a problem!)

Obviously, Russia was listening and will do so again, to influence our democratic process, a repeat of 2016.

According to the drip-drip information released by the FBI and Director James Comey, Russia was already listening in on the 2016 election, even before Donald Trump made his treasonous clarion call for illegal intervention.  In fact, Russia was so much into electronic espionage, that it actually influenced public opinion about Hillary Clinton and helped sway voters against supporting her election. All the while, the "listening"campaign was branded as "fake news". It's going to be tough to explain this weird confluence of events to future generations, when historians are asked to explain "what the hell happened?"

Nevertheless, in spite of the bizarre "connect the dots" of high level conspirators who participated in the successful Russian invasion of the US democracy (by the way, no need to remind ourselves about how our nation sends observers to monitor other nations' elections) the most salient fact we can anticipate is how the Russians will do a repeat performance, as soon as possible. Indeed, intelligence is, most likely, already prepared to influence the 2018 mid term elections.

Why did Russia do this?  Because they could. Also, because Vladimir Putin "hated" Ms. Hillary Clinton (said FBI Director, James Comey, when he testified on March 20th, to the House Intelligence Committee).

It's too trivial to label this intelligence, espionage and intrigue as bizarre. In the aggregate, the entire process smacks of treason by key players in the Donald Trump campaign, who were driven like wild horses at mating season to win the 2016 Republican election.

Will future US elections be free of Russian meddling? This article in the Christian Science Monitor reports on the possibilities.

Reports about Russian meddling in the US election are so complicated as to be nearly incoherent. Countering expected future attacks on US political integrity will require a comprehensive use of all levels of national power, experts say.By Peter Grier- CSM staff writer

MARCH 31, 2017 —Allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election raised lots of questions, from why so many Trump team members met with the Russian ambassador prior to inauguration day, to whether Moscow hacked any key party groups besides the Democratic National Committee.

But there’s one crucial uncertainty that’s perhaps been lost in the partisan wrangling over Russia’s actions: What is the US going to do when they try it again?
Because Russia is almost certain to repeat its efforts to undermine American voters’ faith in their electoral system, according to US officials. Why shouldn’t it? The Vladimir Putin regime appears happy with the way covert and overt techniques have worked so far.

Countering this unprecedented attempt at influence may require an equally unprecedented whole-government American response. According to experts, that could involve everything from better cyberdefense and more public exposure of hacking to a US-run debunking website devoted to the exposure of Russia-backed fake news. Common-sense measures at the personal level and efforts to strengthen democratic institutions at the public level also are needed, they say.

“I do believe it’s in our power to stop these Russian tactics, but what it will require is a very focused effort,” says Heather Conley, Europe program director for the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a co-author of the new report “Recalibrating US Strategy Toward Russia.”

In interviews and at hearings and think-tank conferences in Washington, officials and experts alike expressed a consensus that so far the known US response to Russian meddling has been limited and not entirely coherent.

Prior to November, the Obama administration seemed reluctant to name and shame Russia for meddling, for fear it would be criticized for attempting to influence the vote itself. 

Since January, the Trump administration seems most concerned that the subject might undermine the new president’s electoral legitimacy.

President Barack Obama did eventually expel dozens of Russian diplomats and impose some sanctions on Russia, while publishing a public summary of the attack on the DNC.

Still, on the whole “we have no organized response as a country. … Until we set boundaries, they are going to move as far as they can,” said Clint Watts, a former FBI agent and senior fellow at the Center for Cyber and Homeland Security at George Washington University, at a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing Thursday.

Intentional swagger?

Russia hasn’t been bothering to take its shoes off and try to sneak around quietly, either. It’s been “loud” in its efforts to hack the US election, leaving behind bits of code and other cyber-clues that make it relatively easy to attribute computer break-ins to Russian-linked groups.

This swagger may have been part of the point, said FBI Director James Comey in his March 20 appearance at the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Moscow may have counted on the US picking up on the intrusions, publicly informing voters, and subsequently “freaking people out,” said the FBI chief.

Given their success, they’ll be back to try and affect the 2018 midterms and then return again for the 2020 presidential election, according to Mr. Comey.

“One of the lessons they may draw from this is that they were successful because they introduced chaos and division and discord and sowed doubt about the nature of this amazing country of ours and our democratic process,” he said.

The Russian effort for the 2016 vote began ramping up in mid- to late-summer of 2015, according to experts. It was a hybrid composed of the covert hacking of the DNC and other targets, the dissemination of slanted or completely fake news via such means as automated social media bots, and overt propaganda covered by the state-controlled RT news channel and other Russian media outlets.

US intelligence detailed the hacking effort in declassified reports at the end of 2016. In sum, two Advanced Persistent cyber-threats deemed linked to Russia, APT28 and APT29, emailed a malicious link to more than 1,000 recipients, including multiple government officials. At least one person – presumably Clinton campaign chief John Podesta – bit on the link, in part due to faulty information provided by the campaign’s tech team.

In the end, Russian hacking groups – also known by nicknames such as “Fancy Bear” and “GeminiDuke” and “Eviltoss” – reportedly got access to sensitive systems at the DNC and elsewhere. They merrily rummaged about, “likely leading to the exfiltration of information from multiple senior party members,” according to a joint FBI and Department of Homeland Security report.

This is the origin of much of the stuff that unknown intermediaries passed to WikiLeaks and other outlets for dissemination to the wider world.

“The US Government assesses that information was leaked to the press and publicly disclosed,” the report drily notes.

But hacking was only one prong of the effort. Russia also used the older, historic tool of out-and-out fake news and twisted propaganda – albeit disseminated with modern social media methods

Then there was the alleged Incirlik incident.
On the evening of July 30, 2016, RT and Sputnik News simultaneously released stories saying, falsely, that the US air base at Incirlik in Turkey was being overrun by terrorists. Russian news aggregators, trolls, and Russia-linked automated social media “bot” accounts quickly spread and amplified this story, including the assertion (also false) that there were nuclear missiles at the base that would be lost in the incursion.

More than 4,000 tweets in the story’s first 78 minutes were from accounts associated with Russian active propaganda measures, according to Clint Watts of the Center for Cyber and Homeland Security. Apparently based in many different places and communities, they used the same hashtags (#Nuclear) and keywords to try and spread the notion that a Benghazi-like attack was under way on a much larger scale. In reality, a small protest had simply gathered outside Incirlik’s gates.

“This pattern of Russian falsehoods and social media manipulation of the American electorate continued through Election Day and persists today,” wrote Mr. Watts in his prepared statement for the March 30 Senate Intelligence hearing. “Many of the accounts we watched push the false Incirlik story in July now focus their efforts on shaping the upcoming European elections, promoting fears of immigration or false claims of refugee criminality.”

So that’s what the US now faces. It’s a combination of old Soviet-era disinformation efforts and powerful modern communications and computer techniques.

The Incirlik incident

Consider the experience of Sen. Tim Kaine (D) of Virginia, Hillary Clinton’s running mate. He was the subject of a number of Russia-derived false stories during the campaign. At least three were so silly or unbelievable the mainstream media didn’t bother to mention them at all, Senator Kaine said in January at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

Out of curiosity he looked at one of the stories on social media to see what kind of reaction it was producing. He was astonished to learn it had been shared 800,000 times.

“These are stories that most fourth graders would find incredible,” said Kaine at the HASC meeting.

So that’s what the US now faces. It’s a combination of old Soviet-era disinformation efforts and powerful modern communications and computer techniques.

'A whole-of-government approach'
Lawmakers and US officials say that countering Russia’s attacks on US political integrity will require a comprehensive use of all levels of national power. 

Cyberdefense is crucial, but only part of the equation. Cyber-intrusions should not always be countered with cyber-based weapons.

“We must engage in a whole-of-government approach to counter Russia’s active measures,” said Sen. Richard Burr (R) of North Carolina, chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, in a public hearing on the subject Thursday.

US operations need to improve in three areas: defense, detection, and deterrence, according to Ben Buchanan, a postdoctoral fellow at the Belfer Center Cybersecurity Project at Harvard University.

On defense, individuals should realize that if they have any kind of national role, their personal accounts might be Russian targets. They need to take basic steps such as two-factor authentication for computer access and activities and password managers so they don’t just reuse passwords, says Mr. Buchanan.

At the national policy level the US should spend the money to replace many of its aging legacy systems with systems built with security in mind. President Obama’s proposed IT modernization would be a good baseline from which to start, says Buchanan in an email response to a reporter’s questions.access.

“No perimeter defense is perfect, and security professionals should 
On detection, it’s important for federal systems to have good network visibility so defenders can spot intruders once they gain assume that compromise will happen and focus on detecting and remediating it as fast as possible,” says Buchanan.

Deterrence could involve a wide range of responses. But the US must act in some manner if its deterrence in this area is to remain credible. “Naming and shaming” is perhaps one place to start. Indicting Russian, Chinese, or Iranian hackers would show that the US can determine who is behind intrusions and limit their ability to travel abroad.

Exploiting US weaknesses

Looking at the situation more broadly, the first line of defense should be to strengthen Western democratic institutions, says Ms. Conley of CSIS. After all, Russia’s main aim is to weaken US leadership abroad and pull more of Europe into its own sphere of influence. Resisting that requires strong and resilient government.

That could mean more financial transparency, to track illicit Russia-linked money flows into the US and other nations. It could mean more efforts to root out corruption and strengthen the independent judiciary in troubled nations.

“The Russians are just exploiting weaknesses that exist in our society,” says Conley. “We have very low trust factors in our leaders and institutions. This is a long-term rebuilding.”

Information literacy is a problem, she adds. In today’s friend-based news environment, where many people get their news from links sent along by social media, it’s much harder to verify truth than it was in the cold war era of three main TV networks.

Perhaps a school or community-based public education effort on the dangers of “fake news” is what’s needed.

“How do we get community leaders, civic leaders, school leaders involved?” Conley says. “You have to educate.”

Some experts have suggested a government-sponsored version of the Snopes debunking website, devoted to exposing Russia-created fake stories and countering Russia’s twist on news events. (Maine Writer- IMO, this approach is too slow, won't work, only as good as it's continuously updated!)

Others push for the restoration of an independent US Information Agency, a cold war era organization that was dedicated to cultural and news outreach in nations subject to Soviet influence.

Many urge the US to do more, whatever it is. The response so far to Russia’s active measures of influence hasn’t been adequate, they say.

“It’s time the United States reminds the world, that despite our day-to-day policy debates and political squabbles, we stand united, alongside our allies, in defending our democratic system of government,” said Watts of the Center for Cyber and Homeland Security in his opening statement at Thursday’s Senate intelligence hearing. (Well therein is the issue!  With the chaotic leadership of Donald J. Trump, given the tenacious followers he hypnotically attracted to his cult, is it really possible for the USA to have any credibility with our allies in the forseeable future?)

In other words, "Russia if you're listening" will influence our democracy, at least until leadership is elected that will take this threat seriously. It's imperative and of national security urgency to do something, before it's too late and something worse than a "fake news" cycle happens. Republicans can't go on pretending they somehow didn't hear the clarion call. 

Meanwhile, "Russia if you are listening" received a "huge" (Trumponian bravado) return on investment by influencing the election of Donald J. Trump.  Hopefully, just like the defunct Russian Ruble (value at $0.18 on the U$Dollar) - the investment will fail.

Russian President Putin is a Napoleonic despot

It's difficult to understand how Europeans and the world can put up with Russia's outrageous take over of the Ukraine.  Surely, Europeans are sensitive to how appeasement fueled the ambitions of the Nazi Third Reich.  Now, the Napoleonic ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin is creating deja vu history. Unfortunately, Putin's abuse of the Ukraine's cease fire negotiations are not illusions. 

In fact, Putin delights in international scheming an cheating.  

Putin obviously has has no intention of honoring any cease fire and, in fact, the Ukraine is just a stepping stone to greater ambitions.  

Nevertheless, his ambition and despot goals notwithstanding, my question is how Putin can possible pay for his Napoleonic goals to take over Eastern Europe?  His Russian ruble is essentially junk currency.  Who funds Putin's army?  Surely, his Russian military isn't fighting for free. Okay, suppose they are fighting for free. It won't last. They won't fight long without food or military reinforcements.  But, victories are euphoric. Perhaps Putin keeps taking over Ukraine land just to keep his military motivated. Yet, there simply can't be a stable salary associated with these military campaigns. Frankly, Putin has rubles, but no money.

Evil people have a habit of  surviving, when all indications are they should implode. Putin is a survivor. He was a manager during the Cold War. Now he's President of Russia.

Nevertheless, even Napoleon was a mortal human being.  Napoleon died in 1821, and he's buried in Paris.

Likewise, Vladimir Putin is equally mortal. Eventually, when Russia runs out of money, Putin's supporters will find a way to overthrow his dictatorship. 

Meanwhile, Europe must keep pressuring Putin, so he cannot continue to fulfill his Napoleonic ambitions. There is no alternative.

Russia responds to the nation's economic downturn by dropping vodka prices

This headline epitomizes the cliche about "can't make this up". Russia is dropping vodka prices! Isn't that like trying to cure diabetes by overdosing on sugar?  There can't be any logic to this story, but it's incredulously being reported on CNN. 

While the Russian ruble currency tanks under the pressure of international economic sanctions and low oil prices, the price of vodka will apparently be reduced.  Alcoholism is epidemic in Russia! It seems like the way the Russians are responding to their nation's economic crises is to kill off the population with alcohol poisoning.

Russia slashing vodka prices as economy reels  

By Alanna Petroff  

The state agency that regulates alcohol said this month that it will slash vodka prices in February by about 16%.

The Russian economy is in a tailspin, but hey, vodka is about to get cheaper!

The price cut marks a reversal for Russian policy makers, who have tried to discourage excessive drinking by hiking alcohol taxes, banning advertising and introducing new, restrictive regulations over the past few years.

But now inflation in Russia is near 10%, the ruble has fallen by more than 40% this year and the economy is shrinking -- and cheaper vodka just might take the edge off.

The country is getting hit hard by a sharp drop in oil prices as well as Western sanctions due to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, and the situation is expected to get much worse before it gets better.

News of the vodka price cut comes after Russian President Putin told government officials in Moscow last week that he was concerned that expensive vodka was driving consumers to drink cheaper bootlegged substitutes, which are not fully taxed or regulated.  Latest estimates suggest that up to one-third of vodka in Russia is bought through the black market. 

Alcohol prices in Russia have risen much faster than other items in recent years due to targeted government regulations. 
In 2013, alcohol prices shot up by about 15%, according to data from Euromonitor International.

Rising prices have helped curb consumption, and vodka sales have been hit particularly hard.

Russians consumed nearly 1.2 billion liters of vodka drinks in 2013, according to research from Mintel, down 13% compared to 2012.

Alcoholism in Russia is considered a major problem. It's believed to cause nearly 500,000 deaths per year and is responsible for one-third of crimes, according to Euromonitor.

"Alcohol consumption patterns in Russia are amongst the riskiest in the world as consumers frequently prefer to drink excessively," Euromonitor stated in a report.


 

Russian economy shrinks for first time since 2009: Economic sanctions at work

The Moscow Times is telling the world what's going on inside Russia, but major American news networks like NBC would rather report "Making a Difference" stories. US news media must eventually give President Obama credit for his international patience and suppot for economic sanctions to oppose Russian President Putin's illegal invasion of the Ukraine.

It's difficult to understand how President Putin can withstand this kind of economic downturn, but our American news isn't reporting the ruble's collapse.

"This is linked to sanctions first of all, oil and the panic we saw on the market in December. The damage to the banking system and consumer sentiment will take a long time to repair," Polevoy said.
(chief economist for Russia and the CIS at ING Bank in Moscow)

The (economic) sanctions have severely reduced the ability of Russian companies to borrow abroad, triggering the worst currency crisis since Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998.

 

Russia's economy shrank sharply in November and the ruble resumed its slide on Monday as Western sanctions and a slump in oil prices combined to inflict the first contraction in GDP since the global financial crisis.

The Economic Development Ministry said gross domestic product shrank 0.5 percent last month, the first drop since October 2009. With oil exports forming the backbone of the economy, analysts said the contraction is likely to worsen.

The slide on the oil market accelerated this month after the exporters' group OPEC refused to cut output, and prices are down almost 50 percent from a peak in June. On top of this, the sanctions imposed over Moscow's role in the Ukraine crisis have deterred foreign investment and led to over $100 billion flooding out of the Russian economy this year.

"With the current oil price we expect things to get worse. There is no cause for optimism," said Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at ING Bank in Moscow.

"This is linked to sanctions first of all, oil and the panic we saw on the market in December. The damage to the banking system and consumer sentiment will take a long time to repair," Polevoy said.

The sanctions have severely reduced the ability of Russian companies to borrow abroad, triggering the worst currency crisis since Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998.

The ruble, which had strengthened on Friday, slumped over 6 percent against the dollar in early trade on Monday in thin trade, although it later regained some of the losses.

Overall the ruble's weakness will inevitably lead to higher inflation next year by pushing up the cost of imports, threatening President Vladimir Putin's reputation for ensuring Russia's prosperity.

Government ministries forecast the slump in oil prices will lead to a 4 percent contraction of the economy next year and that inflation could exceed 10 percent.

Falling Ruble

The ruble had lost more than half of its value at one stage in December, although it has recovered since then after the government introduced informal capital controls and raised interest rates steeply.

The government issued orders to large state-controlled oil and gas exporters Gazprom and Rosneft to sell some of their dollar revenues to shore up the ruble.

Russians have kept a wary eye on the exchange rate since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Hyper-inflation wiped out their savings over several years in the early 1990s and the ruble collapsed again in 1998.

At 2:27 p.m. in Moscow the ruble was trading at 56.40, much weaker than the 30-35 seen in the first half of the year but well up from a low of 80 per dollar in mid-December, its lowest point since the financial collapse of 1998.

The falling ruble has prompted huge buying of foreign currency in Russia and heavy withdrawals of bank deposits, heaping pressure on a vulnerable banking sector whose access to Western capital markets is restricted by the sanctions.

On Friday, Russian authorities also significantly scaled up rescue funds for Trust Bank, saying they would provide up to $2.4 billion in loans to bail out the mid-sized lender, the first bank to fall victim to the crisis.

 

It's a dangerous situation for ordinary Russians trying to survive the winter.  For President Putin, it's an ominous problem but one he has control over. Just pull back out of Eastern Ukraine and the economic problems will be alleviated. It's not rocket science.  

 

But, for President Putin to order a withdrawal means he must deflate his ego or the Russian nation will pin prick it for him.

MH17 airline disaster created more innocent victims of international conflict

An excellent webpage is dedicated to the stories and memorials about the Malaysian airline disaster MH17 on BBCNews.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29984297
When passengers checked in on the Malaysian MH17 airliner in Amerstdam, they sadly became the unsuspecting victims of a military dispute between the Ukraine and Russia. Now, Russia won't accept any of the blame for the disaster while the cause of the horribe deadly missle attack on the civilian airliner is unknown.

Regardless of how the attack happened or who was fundamentally responsible, the facts are indisputable:

1.  All passengers and the crew of MH17 were innocent victims of the military power struggle between Russia and the Ukraine.

2.  In not accepting blame for the attack, Russia's President Putin is protecting himself and his irresponsible military from paying reparations to Amsterdam, to Malaysia (owner of the airliner) and to the families of victims.

Remembering the MH17 air disaster with memorials and related news stories are essential to keeping the investigation about the root cause of the attack open, until an agreement about reparations are determined. Meanwhile, with the Russian ruble (RUB) now equivilant to junk currency, it's sadly difficult to foresee a time when the families or the nations victimized will see reparations.  

Of course, the international repudiation of the air attack on a civilian aircraft without cause will continue to linger, regardless of how long it takes for Russia to assume responsibility for this air disaster.

Moscow Times creates interesting reading - on line thoughtful journalism from behind Putin's ego shadow

Just found an interesting source of information in The Moscow Times.  Indeed, as in Moscow, Russia and the news is surprisingly objective, even critical, of President Putin's ego trip in "leadership".  http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/

The Moscow Times

Many Americans believe ours is the only nation where freedom of the press is practiced. Yet, we tolerate "entertainment" news like it's objective journalism and too many accept the bias of right wing Fox News as factual. Unfortunately, Americans aren't routinely hearing real news, because so much of what's reported gets filtered through the sieve of commercialism. 

News media aims to please advertisers.

Thankfully, on line real news is accessible from British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), Al Jazeera America and our own steadfastly reliable Christian Science Monitor. Indeed, real news is reported in some media, if people want to seek truth behind the headlines.

Added to the list I find to be reliable for cutting edge information is The Moscow Times. In fact, news reported in The Moscow Times comes from around the world, but with the political commentary focused on Russia. What I'm reading in this reporting should have Putin worried. Given Putin's enormous ego, which inflates his stubby chest like a parade balloon, it's likely the Russian president prefers watching pictures of himself playing like he's a world leader, than to face up to criticism from his country's media.

It seems like The Moscow Times sees beyond Putin's ego. Brave reporters like Fyodor Lukyanov (editor) reports the long term international consequences Russia will experience as the western nations tighten economic sanctions against the Ukrainian aggression. Right now, Putin isn't blinking in the face off with the West about economic sanctions, because, frankly, he'll loose his egotistical position as Russia's leader if he backs down. Therefore, he's putting Russia into a terrible economic vice - continue with sanctions, regardless of the hardships ordinary Russians experience, just because he has no alternative if he's going to keep his power base content.  

But, The Moscow Times reports on how the world will be unforgiving of Russia, as a result of Putin's inability to behave like a world leader, rather than a delusional Napoleonic Stalin.

Here's how The Moscow Times sees it:

"Current events could be compared to another of Russia's breaking points, 1917 — the point at which the Russian Empire was gone forever and its successor state became an international pariah. Hit by sanctions that fundamentally changed its status in the international system, Soviet Russia was placing its bets on autarchy, or creating a closed and self-sufficient economy."

(Moreover, writes The Moscow Times) "I'm in no way suggesting that post-Crimea Russia is analogous to the country that emerged from the flames of the 1917 revolution. I am saying that once the ruling authorities in a country have been deemed unfit by foreign partners, they can never fully repair relations with them."

(Well, there you have it, directly from The Moscow Times.)

Although Putin is pulling the strings with the puppets who are fighting as rebels in the Ukraine, while desperately trying to forge an avenue to the Crimea, his aggression has created long term consequences. Just as the Russians were participating in a free market economy, they're now thrust backwards, just because Putin wants his own private road to the Crimea through the Ukraine, regardless of how many people die as a result. 

Meanwhile, I doubt the roads to Sochi, in Russia, the site of the expensive summer Olympics, are being maintained since all the international tourists went home. Putin simply can't afford to fund wars, pay a military, build roads and prop up the destructive Assad regime in Syria, too. Maybe, Putin doesn't look, but he should - the price of oil is dropping, so there's not so much money in those Syrian oil fields he's trying to control. Even worse, today's Ruble is worth a measly $0.25 (that's twenty five cents); or to put it another way, the Russian Ruble is worth a humiliating "two bits".

Although I've been blogging about President Putin's out of control ego for several months, it's now validating to find a media source within Russia, with whom I agree. The Moscow Times reports from behind Putin's egotistical shadow.

It's interesting to note, The Moscow Times has been publishing since 1992!  I think all Americans should be reading it on line, because it could become the only media where Putin's ego gets challenged and his bare chest images are re-sized.

Ukraine supports a pro-western alliance - no egotistical propped up leader like Assad: Russian Ruble is useless

Ukraine isn't Syria. Ukrainians are largely pro-western and Christian. Unlike Syria's President Assad, who is obsessively focused on his immortality, the Ukraine has thrown it's leader out and wants to form a more democratic government. Nevertheless, Russia's ambitious President Putin wants to find another Assad who can be propped up in the Ukraine, but, it won't happen.

It seems to me, it's entirely possible that President Obama can defeat the expansionist vision of Russia's President Putin with economic pressure. I never thought I'd believe this possible, but it's true, the ruble is worthless. 

Let's make the Russian ruble look like monopoly money.

Secretary of State John Kerry says the Russian Ruble is tumbling and Putin has severely stressed his nation's economy with his costly Sochi extravaganza, the Olympic Games. To put it bluntly, Putin can't afford to keep acting like he's king of the universe. He's on a power trip, but the world isn't buying into it.....I don't think.  

What's the world doing to stop President Putin from his unbridled ambition?  If something isn't done soon, it's my opinion that:

Austria + Poland = Syria + Ukraine (1939)

Secretary of State John Kerry denounced the Russian movement of troops into Ukraine on Sunday's "Meet the Press", as “an act of aggression” and accused President Vladimir Putin of “possibly trying to annex Crimea.”

“He's going to lose on the international stage, Russia is going to lose, the Russian people are going to lose, and he's going to lose all of the glow that came out of the Olympics, his $60 billion extravaganza,” Kerry said on NBC’s Meet the Press.

Russia will suffer a loss of trade and investment if Putin doesn't reverse course, said Kerry. Russia has “major investment and trade needs” which are bound to suffer if Russian troops don’t leave Ukraine. “There’s a unified view by all of the foreign ministers (Kerry) talked with – all of the G-8 and more -- that they’re simply going to isolate Russia; they’re not going to engage with Russia in a normal business-as-usual manner…. The ruble is already going down and feeling the impact of this,” he said.

From travel experience, I know that the Russian ruble is useless.

One advantage the Ukraine resistance has over the Putin illegal takeover of the country is the strength of the US dollar. Ukraine should make the US dollar its quasi currency (as in Viet Nam, in Cambodia and in Cuba).  

Ukrainians could be paid in US dollars while the rubles could be burned in a public relations bonfire campaign. Meanwhile the US dollars could be bought with Ukrainian natural resources like iron ore and petroleum.

Russia has no business stirring up the the world order just to feed Putin's short man, "Napoleon complex". 

Putin knows how the world has no use for the Russian ruble. 

In my opinion, the US dollar can defeat Russia faster than any saber rattling threats to the world order by Putin. 

Let's advocate for the US dollar to be the currency of the Ukraine and see how quickly those Russian solders, now infiltrating the nation in tanks and trucks, start looking for new Ukrainian jobs.