Donald Trump made a lot of broken promises to voters to get re-elected. As usual he lied. Promises were all broken.

Echo opinion published in The New York Times by Steven Rattner:

“Promises made, promises kept.” Other presidents have employed variations of that phrase, although few with the gusto of Trump; he even proclaims it on the White House website. When it comes to the economy, though, “promises not kept” would be a more apt description of the first 19 months of Trump 2.0. And many of the promises he has kept are causing as much damage as critics predicted. All in all, while Trump continues to boast about the “greatest economy we’ve ever had, by far,” the record to date falls far short of that lofty pronouncement.

Trump’s Promise: ‘We’re going to grow like nobody’s ever grown before.’  Economic Club of New York, Sept. 5, 2024. But in reality, the economy is slowing.  In this year’s second quarter, growth dropped to an annual rate of just 1.5 percent, a shift substantially caused or exacerbated by Trump’s policies. Rising energy prices and inflation. Decreased government spending. A deteriorating trade balance, thanks to his tariffs. That’s added up to materially slower growth than the healthy 2.75 percent rate that Trump was bequeathed by President Joe Biden.

Trump’s Promise: ‘In the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget.’ Address to a joint session of Congress, March 4, 2025.  In reality, the deficit is projected to keep growing. Spending was high under President Biden as he worked to combat the lingering effects of the Covid epidemic, and invest in priorities like clean energy and infrastructure. But even as Republicans cut a number of these initiatives, the deficit rose in Trump’s first budget after his return to office, largely because of his huge tax cut. And the Congressional Budget Office projects that it will continue to climb to 💲3.1 trillion by 2036. That makes the notion of Trump balancing the budget just plain laughable.

Trump’s Promise: ‘But now it’s our turn to prosper, and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt, and it’ll all happen very quickly.’  Tariff announcement, White House Rose Garden, April 2, 2025.  In reality, the national debt is about to break its World War II record. Huge deficits mean, of course, more debt. The soaring national debt should terrify every American. It makes business loans and mortgages more expensive. And perhaps more important, it burdens future generations by squeezing Washington’s ability to fund other important priorities. The ratio of total debt held by the public to the size of our economy is about to surpass the World War II record. By 2036, the C.B.O. projects our national debt will reach 120 percent of gross domestic product.

Trump’s Promise: ‘America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have.’  Second inaugural address, Jan. 20, 2025. In reality,
manufacturing employment has stalled. Manufacturing employment, which grew during much of President Biden’s administration because of his ambitious industrial investments, has slipped to 12.6 million, down 62,000 since Trump’s second inauguration. China and other emerging nations continue to put pressure on higher-cost production in the United States, and Trump’s tariffs have yet to reverse this trend. They probably had the opposite effect by increasing prices on the materials factories need to produce goods for export.

Trump’s Promise:  ‘Without tariffs, and all of the TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS we have already taken in, our Country would be completely destroyed.’  Truth Social, Aug. 31, 2025, after the appeals court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs. In reality, tariff refunds are in full swing.  The only visible changes are to tariffs themselves, given that the Supreme Court ruled that the bulk of Trump’s new tariffs were illegal and lower courts ordered those payments refunded. It should be noted that the refunds are going to the companies that paid them rather than to the consumers who probably bore much of the cost. And the array of new tariffs Trump has rolled out since have already been challenged in court. Even if they are upheld, they stand to generate only 💲121 billion in 2026 — far less than the 💲166 billion that the government must refund.

Trump’s Promise:  ‘Starting on Day 1, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.’  Campaign rally, Bozeman, Mont., Aug. 9, 2024. In realith, inflation has caught up with paychecks. (IOW Americans cannot afford to pay for the increasing costs of health care, housing, energy and food.)  It’s unimaginable that Trump was ever going to bring down prices. But, in reality, thanks to Trump's war of choice against Iran, inflation has become an even bigger problem. When Trump took office in 2025, inflation was only modestly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent a year. With prices now rising by more than 3 percent, the Fed may begin raising rates — a move that will make everything from credit card debt to mortgage loans more expensive — in order to curb inflation.  

Trump’s Promise:  ‘Energy is going to bring us back. That means we’re going down and getting gasoline below 💲2 a gallon.’  Economic Club of New York, Sept. 5, 2024.  But, in reality, gas is above 💲4 a gallon. Trump’s promise of gasoline prices under 💲2 per gallon was never realistic. At that price, the price of crude oil would probably have to fall to 💲30 per barrel, a level that would make drilling for new supplies so unprofitable that supply would drop, eventually causing prices to turn back up. And that was before Trump started the Iran war. Gas prices reached 💲4.50 in mid-May and remain around 💲4 — about 30 percent higher than they were on Inauguration Day.

Trump’s Promise: ‘Young people will be able to buy a home again and be a part of the American dream. We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs, with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half. … The regulations alone cost 30 percent. Regulation cost 30 percent of a new home.' Economic Club of New York, Sept. 5, 2024.  In reality, home costs have barely gone down. If we use conventional methodology, a family would need an annual income of about 💲120,000 to afford the median price of a newly constructed home. At present, the median household earns roughly 💲86,000.

Trump’s Promise: ‘Reducing mortgage rates is a big factor. We’re going to get them back down to, we think, 3 percent, maybe even lower than that, saving the average homebuyer thousands of dollars per year.’  Economic Club of New York, Sept. 5, 2024. In reality, mortgage rates are stuck near 7 percent.  The mortgage interest rate — a large component of the cost of home ownership — is virtually unchanged since Trump took office. Why❓ Largely because of the surge in overall prices and the upward pressure the growing debt is putting on long-term rates. The higher the inflation rate, the more lenders charge so they can earn an acceptable after-inflation rate of return.

Trump’s Promise: ‘We’re not cutting Medicaid, we’re not cutting Medicare, and we’re not cutting Social Security.’ NBC’s “Meet the Press,” May 4, 2025. In reality, Medicaid cuts get bigger every year. 

In reality, Just months after Trump claimed that there would be no cuts to Medicaid, he broke that promise with his 2025, domestic policy legislation. It imposed an onerous requirement that recipients document at least 80 hours of work per month to keep their coverage, limited states’ ability to finance their share of the program and closed off simplified paths to enrollment. To minimize the political fallout, more than 95 percent of the cuts were timed to take effect after the 2026 midterms. But, some changes have started being phased in, and the number of Medicaid recipients has already fallen by almost five million over the past year.

Trump’s Promise:  ‘Costs were going to go way up, and that’s what happened, and now I’m bringing them way down on health care and everything else.’  State of the Union address, Feb. 24, 2026. In reality, the price of health insurance jumped 26% from last year. 

Although Republicans stopped talking about repealing the Affordable Care Act, their smaller changes are making health care more expensive for millions of Americans. The average premium for a benchmark plan on the marketplace rose nearly 26 percent from last year, contrary to one of Trump’s promises. And the number of uninsured Americans is rising.