Donald Trump is in political quicksand with his failed Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz status is uncertain

Trump Acknowledges His Iran War Isn’t Really Over (Ya'think❓)

Obviously, the Iran cease-fire is dead. Long live the cease-fire.

Echo report published in New York Magazine Intelligencer by Chas Danner.

(So, has Iran surrendered yet ❓)

So, guess what❓The U.S. and Iran are striking each other again, and there is at least some concern that the tit-for-tat status quo may turn back into a full-blown hot war despite both sides signing the much heralded but actually crappy memorandum of understanding less than a month ago, at Versailles, where the World War One armistice was signed and Germany surrendered.  

On Tuesday, Iran tried to reassert its dominion over the not-totally-reopened Strait of Hormuz by striking some commercial ships near Oman — whose territorial waters are being used for a U.S.-backed route which avoids dealing with Iran. The U.S. responded with air strikes on targets in Iran and by reimposing sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Iran responded to that with air strikes targeting, it said, U.S. bases in Gulf nations. 

Now the price of oil is back on the rise while everyone waits to see if this remains a measured back-and-forth or suddenly spirals out of control. In a rare admission of reality, as it pertains to this conflict, Donald Trump on Wednesday said the cease-fire was over and that ongoing negotiations were a “waste of time.”

“To me, I think it’s over,” he told reporters at the NATO Summit (when he was not sleeping) in Ankara, Turkey, on Wednesday. “I don’t want to deal with them,”🙄 😬he said, referring to Iran’s regime, whom he called “scum” and “sick,” “violent” people.

😖😓
As far as I’m concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. They’re good people, Steve Woodkoff, Jared Kushner, but they have to come back to me. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars.

And he also suggested reinstating the U.S. naval blockade and warned of another wave of air strikes soon:

We hit them very hard last night. Very, very hard. Probably hit them hard again tonight. I’ll give them a little warning, we’re going to hit them hard again tonight.

And Trump again threatened to blow up Iran’s bridges and energy and water infrastructure, and again suggested the U.S. might take over Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil-export hub. Iran still has almost no missiles left, he insisted. 

Plus, Trump claimed the U.S. has already killed two sets of Iranian leaders while emphasizing how they have never been able to kill him.

We took out their first set of leaders, we took out their second set of leaders. They want to take out the U.S. leader, me. I’m on every list. I saw things this morning. I’m on every single one of their lists. And so far I guess I’ve been a little bit lucky, but that maybe doesn’t last very long. Because that’s the way it goes. We have great people. But these are evil, sick people, and we have to rid — they’re cancer, they’re cancer, and you know what you do❓You got to cut out cancer early. And that’s the way I feel.

We’ll probably find out soon enough whether or not this escalation of violence will lead back to full-blown war. Trump stressed how much harder and tougher U.S. strikes were compared to Iran’s, while U.S. officials noted that they were punishment strikes, not proportional ones. If that is the new mentality on both sides, a return to full-blown war may be inevitable.

Trump disagrees. He said Wednesday that he didn’t think the war was going to start again. “I think it’s going to go very quickly,” he explained, suggesting the violence was in fact still a tit-for-tat, with the U.S. no longer just responding in kind.

But in order to move forward, as INSS analyst Danny Citrinowicz points out, the U.S. must reckon with the fact that Iran clearly has no intention of giving up its control over the Strait of Hormuz:

We keep coming back to the same fundamental question: What does the U.S. administration actually want❓ If Washington’s priority is reaching a durable agreement with Iran, it will have to accept that there is no realistic return to the status quo that existed in the Strait of Hormuz before February 28. From Tehran’s perspective, the rules of the game have changed, and it is unlikely to reverse course simply because of additional pressure.

If, however, the administration’s priority is restoring the previous maritime status quo, then it should also recognize that the chances of a U.S.-Iran agreement decline significantly, while the risk of renewed escalation increases. The administration cannot pursue both objectives simultaneously. It must decide which one matters more.

The current memorandum of understanding, much like previous interim arrangements elsewhere, was negotiated quickly in order to preserve diplomacy. (I.O.W. it was a U.S. surrender signed for the purpose of opening the Strait of Hormuz, but it has flopped❗)

In fact, the core disputes, including Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz, remain unresolved. Those are not peripheral issues; they are central to both sides’ strategic calculations.

Trump also once again called the war “a tremendous military success” on Wednesday, so there are clearly still limits to his recognition of reality.

Hantavirus status report: This virus will continue to mutate and the incubation period is too long to provide rapid response

Report published in the New York Magazine Intelligencer by Nia Prater and Chas Danner.

Julie note- Although I am not a virology expert, my experience preparing for viral epidemics in hospital planning sessions is that viruses mutate.  So, I am not convinced about some of what is reported about what is happening with the Hantavirus today, because, by tomorrow the virus could replicate. That is what viruses do. Nevertheless, the article is a good status report.

An outbreak of the rare and dangerous hantavirus aboard the Dutch-flagged cruise ship MV Hondius has left three passengers dead, forced the medical evacuation of several others, and triggered an international health scare. While the unsettling news has prompted concerns of another widespread virus outbreak akin to COVID-19 or avian flu, the World Health Organization has stressed that the overall public-health risk from the Hondius outbreak is low. Here’s what we know so far.

How did the outbreak start? In a bulletin on Monday, the WHO said that it was first contacted about a “cluster of severe acute respiratory illness” aboard the Hondius on May 2, including two deaths and one passenger who was critically ill. Per the organization, the ship left Ushuaia, Argentina, on April 1 and made numerous stops including mainland Antarctica, Tristan da Cunha, Saint Helena, South Georgia, Nightingale Island, as well as Ascension Island in the South Atlantic Ocean.

In the days since, the number of deaths has risen to three. According to the WHO, the first case was a man presenting with a fever, mild diarrhea, and a headache on April 6; he died on April 11 after developing respiratory distress. The second was a woman who left the ship from Saint Helena on April 24 while reportedly experiencing gastrointestinal symptoms. Her condition worsened while traveling on an April 25 flight to Johannesburg, South Africa, and she passed away after arriving at a hospital on April 26. 

In the third case, a woman died on May 2 after presenting with symptoms on April 28.
The New York Times reports that the first two deaths from the outbreak were a couple, a 70-year-old man from the Netherlands and his 69-year old wife, and the pair had reportedly traveled in South America, specifically Argentina, prior to boarding the ship. PCR testing later confirmed hantavirus infection in the wife’s case. The third fatal case is reported to be a German woman.

According to the Associated Press, Argentina’s Ministry of Health has been tracing the travel of the Dutch couple, who had been on a South American road trip, and the authorities are investigating the possibility that the couple was exposed to hantavirus during a bird-watching trip to a landfill in the southern town of Ushuaia, which is also where they boarded the Hondius.

What is hantavirus? According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, hantaviruses are a family of viruses that humans can contract following contact with rodents, which frequently carry the virus, typically by breathing in particles from their dried saliva, urine, and droppings, like when sweeping a shed where rodents have been living.

Hantavirus infections are typically rare, with an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 cases per year globally, but they can result in severe illness and death. Hantaviruses found in the Americas, also known as New World hantaviruses, can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, which presents with common symptoms like fever, fatigue, and muscle aches before progressing to more severe effects such as shortness of breath and fluid in the lungs. HPS has a fatality rate of 12 to 45 percent depending on the strain.

For variants more common in Europe and Asia, also known as Old World hantaviruses, patients can develop hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, which can cause kidney failure and has a fatality rate of one to 15 percent.

The strain of hantavirus linked to the cruise ship appears to be what’s known as the Andes strain, which, per the CDC, is common in South America and has been linked to human-to-human transmission. However, transmitting the hantavirus person-to-person is rare and typically requires close contact in an enclosed space. The Washington Post reports that Argentina, which appears to have a connection to this recent outbreak, has seen an increase of hantavirus cases in recent years and is frequently ranked by the WHO as the nation with the highest rate of the virus in Latin America.

Hantavirus also has a long incubation period with symptoms typically appearing a few weeks after infection but sometimes as many as eight weeks after. On Thursday, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the WHO, said during a briefing that it is “possible” more cases could be reported down the line.
There is currently no cure nor widely available vaccine for hantavirus — surviving severe illness caused by the infection requires prompt medical intervention and ICU treatment.
One of the most prominent cases of hantavirus emerged last year after Betsy Arakawa, the wife of renowned actor Gene Hackman, was found to have contracted hantavirus pulmonary syndrome after the pair were found dead in their New Mexico home. Per the New York Times, it’s believed that Arakawa was likely infected from exposure to deer mice, which typically carry the virus in the state. In 2025, three people in Mammoth Lakes, California, died after contracting hantavirus.

For even more information about hantavirus, infectious-disease expert and doctor Céline Gounder has written an excellent explainer here.

On Thursday, Dutch officials confirmed that approximately 40 people from at least 12 different countries departed the ship at St. Helena to return home on April 24 without contract tracing, per the AP. Oceanwide Expeditions has put the figure at around 30 passengers, six of whom are Americans. Ghebreyesus said the organization has notified the 12 different nations, which, in addition to the U.S., are Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Turky, and the United Kingdom.

Public-health authorities have been working to track the passengers down and perform contact tracing. Two British citizens who left the ship beforehand and returned to the U.K. are self-isolating, as are a small number of their close contacts. Citing Dutch officials, the Dutch news outlet RTL reported that a flight attendant who was aboard the same Johannesburg flight as the cruise passenger who later died from hantavirus is currently experiencing mild symptoms and is being tested at a hospital. France24 reports that a French national is being monitored after traveling on the same flight.
U.S. health officials in Georgia, California, and Arizona confirmed that American passengers from the Hondius are being monitored in their states for infection since returning to the United States, per the New York Times. The Washington Post reports that passengers in Texas and Virginia are also being observed. So far, none of the passengers have shown any symptoms. In a statement, the CDC said it’s “closely monitoring the situation” and that the State Department is “leading a coordinated, whole-of-government response including direct contact with passengers, diplomatic coordination, and engagement with domestic and international health authorities.”
“At this time, the risk to the American public is extremely low,” the statement said.
What is the current status of the ship?
On Monday, Oceanwide Expeditions said there were 149 people onboard the Hondius representing 23 different nationalities. Of the three people who were medically evacuated Wednesday, two were crewmembers who presented with “acute respiratory symptoms” while the third is an asymptomatic individual with a connection to the passenger who passed away on May 2.
On Thursday, the operator shared updated figures regarding the number of passengers at the start of the voyage, saying 114 guests were on board on April 1 when the Hondius left Ushuaia, Argentina.

On April 15, six more guests boarded at Tristan da Cunha, bringing the total to 120 including the one deceased passenger.

As of Wednesday, the Hondius has departed Cape Verde, where it was moored off the coast following the detection of the outbreak, en route to Spain’s Canary Islands, which Oceanwide Expeditions estimates it will reach following three to four days of travel. On Thursday, the operator estimated that the Hondius would reach the port of Granadilla, Tenerife, early Sunday.
The remaining people aboard the ship are currently asymptomatic and are reportedly taking precautions like wearing masks and practicing social distancing.
The WHO confirmed Thursday that one of its experts boarded the ship in Cabo Verde and was later joined by two doctors from the Netherlands and an expert from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The four will assess all the remaining people on board and will stay on board the vessel until it reaches the Canary Islands.
What are experts saying? On Wednesday, Ghebreyesus signaled that the outbreak doesn’t pose any wider risk so far. “At this stage, the overall public-health risk remains low,” he said.
Maria Van Kerkhove, a top infectious-disease epidemiologist at the WHO, echoed that sentiment on Tuesday. “This is not the next COVID, but it is a serious infectious disease,” she said, per the Associated Press. “Most people will never be exposed to this.”In an interview with STAT News, Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy, put it simply. “It’s not the next pandemic,” he said.
Osterholm continued, “This is one where everyone should just take a breath and know that we are going to bring this to resolution. With adequate respiratory protection, [they could] very well stop all transmission from this point forward.”
Stanford infectious-disease doctor and epidemiologist Abraar Karan also emphasized in an X thread that this poses nothing close to a COVID-like threat, though this particular hantavirus outbreak may be worse than others:
The hantavirus outbreak won’t be anything like COVID — I think that is the wrong comparison. But it can be worse (or at least more complicated) than the usual local outbreaks that occur in Argentina.
First, I suspect there could be a few more generations of infection. Those who left the ship before the outbreak was detected pose the key risk because they may have exposed others unknowingly via close contact. Case 2 who flew on the plane to Johannesburg and the Switzerland case seem to be the only reported ones thus far. Close contact is the key point here.
So it’s likely that more cases will be detected, but there is no reason for any kind of widespread panic. 

Trump donors forced to hear rambling accusations during deranged Mar-a-Lago speech

Republican National Committee and the #TrumptiDumpti campaign co-hosted a private retreat for big GOP donors at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend. Reported in the New York Intelligencer by Chas Danner. "It’s not clear if the framed Billboard acknowledgement, presumably regarding the song’s previous No. 1 status, is in fact a real award."

(Ya'think❓) The Wildest Things Trump Said at His Private Mar-a-Lago Fundraiser

In case you didn’t contribute at least 💲40,000, the amount necessary to attend on Saturday, you missed Donald Trump saying a number of wild things to the audience of hundreds of donors at the event, according to attendee accounts and an audio recording of his speech, which was shared with the New York Times and others.

Below are the most notable comments he reportedly made.

Trump compared the Biden administration to the Nazi secret police.

“These people are running a Gestapo administration,” Trump said of his successor’s administration, while complaining about the many indictments he faces. “And it’s the only thing they have. And it’s the only way they’re going to win, in their opinion, and it’s actually killing them. But it doesn’t bother me.”

He alleged Democrats use welfare to buy votes. Per the New York Times:

Trump’s comments about welfare to wealthy donors at the event called to mind remarks caught on tape by Mitt Romney during his 2012, presidential run, when he dismissed 47 percent of voters as off-limits because they did not pay taxes.

“When you are Democrat, you start off essentially at 40 percent because you have civil service, you have the unions and you have welfare,” Trump said on Saturday. “And don’t underestimate welfare. They get welfare to vote, and then they cheat on top of that — they cheat.”

Trump offered the mic to anyone who pledged 💲1 million, but had just two takers. At one point during the event, Trump announced an incentive for the gathered donors — “as if he were at an auction,” reports the Washington Post. “Anyone who makes a 💲1 million donation right now to the Republican Party,” Trump said, “I will let you come up and speak.” Only two donors accepted. One used his time onstage to declare that “Donald J. Trump is the person that God has chosen.”

He also complained about donors (to the donors).

This probably isn’t a good idea when you’re reportedly having trouble with fundraising. Per the Post:

At another point, [Trump] complained about having to take so many pictures with donors and told people in the crowd that if they didn’t get a picture, it was because they didn’t give enough 💰money❗

He also claimed that a wedding at the property got preference over the donors because the wedding was paying more per person to be there.

Trump insisted everyone was ‘begging’ to be his VP.
Trump also spoke his search for someone to be his running mate, bragging that there was a desperate clamor for the job via one of his trademark, made-up “sir” stories. 

According to Trump: It’s funny when I listen to the fake news, they all say, “Well, you know, he’s going to have a hard time getting people in his administration because he’s very tough and I’m not sure he can get anybody to be vice president of the United States.”
I’ve got 50 people calling me, begging me … “I’ll cut off my right arm, sir. Please, I want to be the vice president.” These are ambitious politicians.

He crudely attacked Jack Smith and Fani Willis.

Per the audio recording of his speech, Trump called special council Jack Smith a “fucking asshole,” an “evil thug,” and “deranged.” He also referred to Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis as a “real beauty” and “Mrs. Wade” — a reference to her controversial relationship with former special prosecutor Nathan Wade, whom she hired to work on the case.

And he bragged about having a bigger hit record than Taylor Swift.

At the event, RNC co-chair Lara Trump reportedly presented Trump with a “Billboard Music Award” for the song “Justice for All” — a rendition of the national anthem performed by a choir of imprisoned January 6th, mob members, overlaid with Trump reciting the Pledge of Allegiance. USA Today reports that Trump was very happy to talk about the success of the song, which his campaign now plays at every event he attends:

The Trump campaign said in a readout of the meeting sent to reporters that Trump’s daughter-in-law and RNC co-chair Lara Trump “presented President Trump with a Billboard Music award for the No. 1 song ‘Justice for All” … In the picture shared with USA TODAY, the former president and Lara Trump are posing next to the framed Billboard acknowledgement Saturday.

“He said something to the effect that: I was approached about helping out, I did it as a favor, I didn’t think much about it, next thing I know, it’s top of the charts! I mean can you believe it? It was higher than Taylor Swift!” an individual at the luncheon told USA TODAY.

P.S. Maine Writer- Did I miss something or did Melania Trump miss this fundraiser❓