Donald Trump is in political quicksand with his failed Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz status is uncertain

Trump Acknowledges His Iran War Isn’t Really Over (Ya'think❓)

Obviously, the Iran cease-fire is dead. Long live the cease-fire.

Echo report published in New York Magazine Intelligencer by Chas Danner.

(So, has Iran surrendered yet ❓)

So, guess what❓The U.S. and Iran are striking each other again, and there is at least some concern that the tit-for-tat status quo may turn back into a full-blown hot war despite both sides signing the much heralded but actually crappy memorandum of understanding less than a month ago, at Versailles, where the World War One armistice was signed and Germany surrendered.  

On Tuesday, Iran tried to reassert its dominion over the not-totally-reopened Strait of Hormuz by striking some commercial ships near Oman — whose territorial waters are being used for a U.S.-backed route which avoids dealing with Iran. The U.S. responded with air strikes on targets in Iran and by reimposing sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Iran responded to that with air strikes targeting, it said, U.S. bases in Gulf nations. 

Now the price of oil is back on the rise while everyone waits to see if this remains a measured back-and-forth or suddenly spirals out of control. In a rare admission of reality, as it pertains to this conflict, Donald Trump on Wednesday said the cease-fire was over and that ongoing negotiations were a “waste of time.”

“To me, I think it’s over,” he told reporters at the NATO Summit (when he was not sleeping) in Ankara, Turkey, on Wednesday. “I don’t want to deal with them,”🙄 😬he said, referring to Iran’s regime, whom he called “scum” and “sick,” “violent” people.

😖😓
As far as I’m concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. They’re good people, Steve Woodkoff, Jared Kushner, but they have to come back to me. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars.

And he also suggested reinstating the U.S. naval blockade and warned of another wave of air strikes soon:

We hit them very hard last night. Very, very hard. Probably hit them hard again tonight. I’ll give them a little warning, we’re going to hit them hard again tonight.

And Trump again threatened to blow up Iran’s bridges and energy and water infrastructure, and again suggested the U.S. might take over Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil-export hub. Iran still has almost no missiles left, he insisted. 

Plus, Trump claimed the U.S. has already killed two sets of Iranian leaders while emphasizing how they have never been able to kill him.

We took out their first set of leaders, we took out their second set of leaders. They want to take out the U.S. leader, me. I’m on every list. I saw things this morning. I’m on every single one of their lists. And so far I guess I’ve been a little bit lucky, but that maybe doesn’t last very long. Because that’s the way it goes. We have great people. But these are evil, sick people, and we have to rid — they’re cancer, they’re cancer, and you know what you do❓You got to cut out cancer early. And that’s the way I feel.

We’ll probably find out soon enough whether or not this escalation of violence will lead back to full-blown war. Trump stressed how much harder and tougher U.S. strikes were compared to Iran’s, while U.S. officials noted that they were punishment strikes, not proportional ones. If that is the new mentality on both sides, a return to full-blown war may be inevitable.

Trump disagrees. He said Wednesday that he didn’t think the war was going to start again. “I think it’s going to go very quickly,” he explained, suggesting the violence was in fact still a tit-for-tat, with the U.S. no longer just responding in kind.

But in order to move forward, as INSS analyst Danny Citrinowicz points out, the U.S. must reckon with the fact that Iran clearly has no intention of giving up its control over the Strait of Hormuz:

We keep coming back to the same fundamental question: What does the U.S. administration actually want❓ If Washington’s priority is reaching a durable agreement with Iran, it will have to accept that there is no realistic return to the status quo that existed in the Strait of Hormuz before February 28. From Tehran’s perspective, the rules of the game have changed, and it is unlikely to reverse course simply because of additional pressure.

If, however, the administration’s priority is restoring the previous maritime status quo, then it should also recognize that the chances of a U.S.-Iran agreement decline significantly, while the risk of renewed escalation increases. The administration cannot pursue both objectives simultaneously. It must decide which one matters more.

The current memorandum of understanding, much like previous interim arrangements elsewhere, was negotiated quickly in order to preserve diplomacy. (I.O.W. it was a U.S. surrender signed for the purpose of opening the Strait of Hormuz, but it has flopped❗)

In fact, the core disputes, including Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz, remain unresolved. Those are not peripheral issues; they are central to both sides’ strategic calculations.

Trump also once again called the war “a tremendous military success” on Wednesday, so there are clearly still limits to his recognition of reality.