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Sunday, December 13, 2015

Iowa caucuses stunted with two loosers

Thankfully, the Iowa caucuses have de-emphasized the stupid state Straw Poll popularity contest, as the way for the state's Republicans to elect delegates to represent them at the national presidential convention, to be held from July 18-21, 2016, in Cleveland, Ohio.


Iowa straw poll has thankfully been upgraded to the Iowa caucses scheduled for Feb. 1st

Now, it's real caucus votes that count, when delegates are selected who go the Republican convention to select a national candidate. Unortunately, however, the Iowa Republican cauces will likely pick one of two right wing extremists to back,  rather than surprise the nation by selecting a viable main stream candidate.

In other words, the Iowan caucus voters seem focused on two right wing extremists who are predicted to loose in the national election to Secretary Hillary Clinton- who will be the nation's first woman president.

In Iowa, the first in the nation caucus will probably decide to support either Donald Trump or Senator Ted Cruz. 

Rather than elect "none of the above" or to identify another viable presidential candidate, the Republican Iowans will spread their caucus count between two right wing extremists (okay, with a few others thrown in to somehow create the illusion of being a democratic process). 

Donald Trump has a reliable money stream from his own bank accounts and an outrageous bravado, while Senator Cruz is an unlikable man who has some kind of "Elmer Gantry" charismatic appeal with zealous Christian voters. 

Yuk to both candidates! Nevertheless, the two men are creating a cacophany of extremism in the media.Iowa's caucuses are a complete turn around from the state's non-binding straw poll, held during the summer.
Reading the results of this straw poll (below) reminds me of the high school teacher who would throw away your lowest class grade to help improve your semester average. This is the Iowa straw poll "throw away" list (By the way, I suspect former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore voted for himself, eh?):

(These expensive Iowa Staw votes don't count, most were paid for by supporters. In fact, the results don't correlate with who the caucus will select.)

Donald Trump: 29.92 percent; 1,830 votes
Ben Carson: 19.37 percent; 1,185 votes
Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas): 8.88 percent; 543 votes
Carly Fiorina: 7.50 percent; 459 votes
Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.): 6.05 percent; 370 votes
Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.): 5.30 percent; 324 votes
Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.): 5.10 percent; 312 votes
Gov. Bobby Jindal (La.): 3.68 percent; 225 votes
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.): 3.07 percent; 188 votes
Gov. John Kasich (Ohio): 2.62 percent; 160 votes
Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.): 2.98 percent; 182 votes
Former Gov. Rick Perry (Texas): 2.24 percent; 137 votes
Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.): 1.08 percent; 66 votes
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.): 1.06 percent; 65 votes
Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.): 0.64 percent; 39 votes
Former Gov. George Pataki (N.Y.): 0.38 percent; 23 votes
Mark Everson: 0.13 percent; 8 votes
Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (Va.): 0.02 percent; 1


What's clear from this Republican Iowa caucuses is that candidates will have to rise to the top or exit. Frankly, I suspect "Jeb!" is looking for whereever he can find an open door around the political Iowan barn.  

Nevertheless, it's unlikely the Republican establishment will endorse the results of the right wing selection in the Iowa caucuses, becuuse both Trump and Cruz are national loosers. 

Unfortunately, the loyal party favorite "Jeb!" just doesn't seem to be interested in the leadership job, because he won't have any "fun" running for office (as he said in his announcement speech~ hello?).

Therefore, "what happens in Iowa will likely stay in Iowa", meaning, the entire "first in the nation" popularity contest is an expensive waste of time.

Let's move on to where the real action takes place. Look to New Hampshire, where the voters pick candidates the old fashioned way. They go to a voting station where there is a box and they vote for their choice. It's unlikely the unpopular Senator Ted Cruz can pull off an "Elmer Gantry" Evangelical vote in stoic and secular New Hampshire. But, since off track betting is legal in the Granite State, it's sure to be a horse race to see who comes in second, after Trump. Whoever that second place person is will likely be the Republican presidential nominee.  

Clearly, the Iowa caucuses will not select a winning candidate. Moreover, Donald Trump is simply throwing his money away in New Hampshire - even if he wins. Somewhere in this political tragedy, with a cast of characters that could fill as surrogates in a police line up,  the reasonable Republican main stream voters will find somebody who can either lead, if elected, or who will keep the Grand Old Party from becoming barnyard fodder for the next Iowan straw poll.

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