World War One - lessons yet to be learned

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Echo opinion published in South New Jersey Times. 

New Jersey opinion. 

In 2018, the world marks 100 years since the end of World War I, and Veterans Day -- previously called "Armistice Day. It's fitting to glance back at the "war to end all wars" to learn lessons for today.

The first thing to note is the carnage. 

For the United States, which entered World War I toward its end, the first battle casualty was Joseph William Guyton, who was killed on May 24, 1918. The last U.S. soldier killed during the declared war was Henry Nicholas John Gunther. He died at 10:59 a.m. on Nov. 11, 1918, one minute before the armistice was to take effect at 11 a.m. In between, America lost about 116,500 of its sons. 

Statistical sources vary, but worldwide overall war-related deaths between 1914 and 1918 are estimated at 15 million to 19 million. Roughly 21 million soldiers were wounded.

Perhaps, it's the main lesson to take away from that period of history: Don't issue idle threats, because each threat demands a response, then a counter-response -- and things escalate accordingly.

In 1914, words of threats and responses moved at a much slower pace than today, given the limits of telegraph technology. Worldwide communication was point to point, from one sender to one receiver. This allowed time for the parties to consider and reflect before anything became public knowledge. While this slower pace didn't prevent the slide into war, things are different in 2018. International communications are instant and broadly disseminated. Instead of one-on-one communication, a tweet can have an audience of hundreds of millions. 

This changes the calculus greatly.

What's striking is that no one really professed to want war at the time. Historian A.J.P Taylor noted that none of the statesmen wanted war on a grand scale, but they wanted to threaten each other and they wanted to win.

Today, there's no time to think.  Additionally, a global press is waiting to know how a world leader is going to respond. There's instant analysis with judgments about who's up and who's down; who's winning and who's losing. No one, especially a leader, wants to be seen as backing down, whether in the halls of a middle school, out on the street, or in geopolitics. 

I'm not at all certain that, 100 years removed from World War I, we've learned our lesson about issuing threats.

Regarding war and conflict, there's always that one spark we like to point at as setting things ablaze. In 1914, it was the assassination of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand by a guy named Gavrilo Princip during the archduke's visit to Bosnia. But things are never that simple. It wasn't just one lone nut who set the course for World War I, but an atmosphere and a mindset that dominated nations. 

In 1914, that mindset had the look and feel of patriotism, but much of it was simple prejudice and bigotry, both ethnic and religious.
Prior to World War I, the populace also had a simple-minded view of war. This is understandable because previous wars were fought on horseback. There were no planes, tanks, bombs, mustard gas or machine guns that can kill dozens in a matter of seconds. 

Obviously, the generation that fought World War I had no frame of reference for the carnage and destruction that would follow, and it was easy to believe that a war could be won quickly.

Today, we know better, and Americans have a century's worth of perspective from two world wars, Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf War and Afghanistan to remind us of the cost. 

Yet, we might be wholly unprepared for a cyber-war that knocks out our electrical grid, or our financial, communications and transportation systems. Again, this is because our frame of reference is the last war -- not the next one.

Although I could be wrong about all of this, we owe our veterans not only our appreciation, but a promise that we won't blunder into a war or lose another generation of our sons and daughters because we failed to heed the lessons of the past.

Albert B. Kelly is mayor of Bridgeton, New Jersey.