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Thursday, August 30, 2018

Yemen and Donald Trump's deteriorating intellectual capacity



Yemen devastation
I don’t care what Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may have done for Donald J. Trump or Israel; this time, what the Saudis are doing in Yemen, is way beyond what the United States should tolerate.

The two Sunni Muslim states have, first, added U.S. 9/​11-vintage enemy al-Qaida to their and our allies in the war in Yemen, putting us and the terrorists who attacked us at home on the same side in the war against the Shiite Houthis there. 

Moreover, the war in Yemen has basically nothing to do with us in any case. Second, the Saudis and their allies carried out yet another brutal air attack in Saada in the north of Yemen on Aug. 9 that killed among others at least 29 children in a school bus in a marketplace.

On top of all that, because the Canadians criticized the Saudi government for having locked up two members of its nonviolent opposition, Raif and Samar Badari, the Saudi government kicked out the Canadian ambassador, Dennis Horak, withdrew the Saudi ambassador from Ottawa, and decreed that there would be no more Saudi business or investment relations with Canada, consistently America’s No. 1 ally. In response to this development, the United States has so far taken a position between the two countries morally comparable to Mr. Trump’s neutral reaction to last year’s Charlottesville confrontation between America’s extreme right and counter protesters.

Continued U.S. collaboration with the two Sunni Muslim states, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in what is essentially an Islamic religious war between Sunnis and Shiites, may have already crossed the line into American participation in war crimes. The latest massacre of children in Saada must be put alongside previous Saudi and Emirates’ bombing of civilian facilities in Yemen, including hospitals, clinics and schools. The United States is directly complicit in the air attacks. We sold them the planes, provide maintenance, spare parts and munitions, and may even have pilots and co-pilots in the cockpits. The United States also has forces fighting on the ground in Yemen, alongside UAE and, astonishingly, al-Qaida forces who are fighting against the Yemeni Houthis.

The war in its humanitarian impact has made upward to 80 percent of the 29 million Yemenis dependent on foreign food aid to avoid starvation.

The Houthis, no angels themselves, are backed by Iran. The Saudis argue that the Houthis are firing Iranian-provided rockets across the Yemen-Saudi Arabia border into the Sunni kingdom. A United Nations envoy, Martin Griffiths, is trying to get the Sunni and Shiite sides to stop fighting and is seeking to schedule a meeting in Switzerland for September.

The Yemen civil war, now having been waged for more than three years, is an outgrowth of long-standing internal Yemeni quarrels and is also in part a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran for dominance in the Middle East. The Israelis favor the Saudis and the Sunnis in general, who, in spite of the fact that most Palestinians are Sunni, have found the Saudis, especially under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to be much less challenging to them than the Iranians, even though at one time the Middle East lined up as Israelis and Persians opposed to Arabs.

Yemen, the poorest of the Arab states, although Syria is comparably ravaged now, has been a scene of conflict for many years. At one time it was two states. The British, trying to hold on in the Middle East, fought Egyptian-backed Yemenis there at one point. The Sunni-Shiite schism is one fault line in the place, although not the only one.

The best thing that could happen at this point is that, starting with the United States, now, all foreign players walk off the bloody field of play, leaving it to the Yemenis themselves to work it out. Nobody, starting with the U.S., helps the Yemenis or themselves by remaining engaged.

Saudi Arabia, in spite of its brave new world of women drivers and the crown prince, will only get itself into deeper trouble by continuing a war it cannot win, even with U.S. and Israeli help. Eventually the Iranians and the Houthis will take the Yemeni conflict deeper into the archaic monarchy, inevitably revealing its fragility and vulnerability in the 21st century.

Iran definitely has other fish to fry. Its economy is shaky. Israel is still busily trying to egg on the United States to attack Iran. Its economic problems, accentuated by Mr. Trump’s having withdrawn the United States from the agreement with China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom, are producing conflict between its reasonable president, Hassan Rouhani, and its more extreme supreme leader, Ali Khamanei.

The UAE will drop out if Saudi Arabia and the United States walk away. Russia doesn’t care much and is still licking its wounds from the expensive Syrian conflict. Israel is too far away to play in Yemen directly, independently or decisively.

As far as America is concerned, bombing a busload of children in cooperation with Saudi Arabia and fighting on the same side as al-Qaida, the Saudis’ ally, our 9/​11 attacker, requires a greater lack of principles than the majority of Americans can muster. As far as staying neutral between Canada and Saudi Arabia because Mr. Trump prefers Crown Prince Mohammed to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, that position is way beyond silly, suggesting, instead, deteriorating intellectual capacity on his part.

Dan Simpson, a former U.S. ambassador, is a columnist for the Post-Gazette (dhsimpson999@gmail.com).

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