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Friday, July 25, 2014

Putin wants to see a Russian military victory to a renewed Cold War

There's a direct correlation between Russia's useless ruble (one ruble - $0.28 US) and President Vladimir Putin's aggression in the Ukraine and, potentially, elsewhere.  

As the ruble currency tanks, Putin's obsession to keep Russian prominence in the world order increases. This dangerous correlation has caused Putin to have delusions about opening the old Cold War, but with a Russian victory, even if it means using military might to achieve what his Soviet predecessors were unable to accomplish.

The Cold War was a sustained state of political and military tension between powers in the Western Bloc (the United States, its NATO allies and others such as Japan ) and powers in the Eastern Bloc (the Soviet Union and its allies inWarsaw Pact). China was originally close to the USSR but became distanced over the question of fidelity to Marxism. Historians haven't fully agreed on the dates, but 1946-1991 is common. It was "cold" because there was no large-scale fighting directly between the two sides.

Obviously, Putin didn't learn much about why the Cold War ended. Although Putin was a minor player in Cold War politics during the 1980s and 90s, the reason the Soviet Union was
overcome by Cold War politics was because their nation's economy tanked and the ruble was worthless. 

Today, Putin is resurrecting the Cold War by driving aggression in the Ukraine, taking the risk that President Obama will not retaliate. This aggression rips the scab off of Cold War politics. Even more dangerous, this time Putin is using the military strategy his predecessors withheld, because of fear of atomic retaliation.  

Putin would've been a lot further along in his aggressive plan to stir up war over the Ukraine if troops sympathetic to the Russians hadn't used a heat seeking missile to mistakenly shoot a civilian Malaysian airliner MH17 out of the sky, murdering everyone on board. Included among the victims were highly praised public health experts who specialized in the treatment of HIV-AIDS. Small children, babies and a religious nun were also among the innocents lost.

Yet, Putin and Russia will eventually pay huge reparations for the death, and destruction of the MH17 disaster. At the same time, Putin must continue to pay (in rubles) for the military aggression he has commanded.

President Putin must take a refresher course to learn the reasons why the Cold War ended with Russia taking the brunt of effective Western and NATO policy.  Russia came in last in Cold War politics because their nation's economy was collapsing under Communism. Right now, a chuck of Russian wealth is living in Southeast Asia and, likely (although I'm speculating about this information ) these new Oligarchs are hiding their wealth far-far away from where Putin can claim it back for his own purposes.  
Putin can't possibly keep Russia solvent in the absence of a viable currency.  

Nevertheless, Putin can cause havoc as a result of being cornered into an economic silo by Western sanctions. Putin's anger can erupt like the heat seeking missile that horribly took down an innocent Malaysian passenger jet. 

Obviously, Putin is like a caged bear with no place to go except to attack his captors.  

Therefore, bringing back Cold War politics is sort of like throwing away the locks on Putin's bear cage. Putin is breaking out of the confines of economic sanctions with the excuse of Russian nationalism as his misplaced cause. This time around, Putin is determined to win the Cold War, regardless of what it costs or how badly the world perceives his ambitious motivations.

Clearly, the world is a more dangerous place as a result of Putin's anger, ambition and aggression.

Putin is in a pile of political problems at home, because of his nation's tanking economy and worthless ruble. Any reasonable person would want to win the confidence of the wealthy Western nations, to bring Russia back to economic prosperity. Unfortunately, this is clearly not going to happen while Putin is obsessed on retaliation to NATO for winning the Cold War.  

Tragically, it's just a matter of time before the West must confront President Putin or risk falling victim to growing aggression. Not only will the Cold War be re-opened but the ghosts of the Hitler era seem to be looming as well.

Surely, the Russian people will eventually see through Putin's ambitious veneer and demand his removal. Russians have a violent history of getting rid of leaders when they no longer serve the people. Sadly, Putin will do a lot of damage in the world before any decisive actions can effectively oppose him and his aggression. What Putin can't calculate, however, is how his aggression is solidifying the West in the same way NATO was aligned during the Cold War. With Russia's economy on the brink of disaster and the West unified against Putin's aggression, it's clearly fanciful thinking on Putin's part to believe the outcome of his renewed Cold War aggression will turn out any differently than in 1991, when Russia's economy collapsed. President Putin is in a pile of political problems, but he has not seemed to calculate the risk of a unified NATO to respond to his aggression.

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