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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Syria President Assad's Days are Numbered - He Can't Survive Genocide and Displacement of Millions of People

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have picked up the initiative on Secretary of State John Kerry's carrot, to offer a diplomatic solution to the Syrian crises, the fact is, regardless of who does what and when, the regime of President Bashar al Assad is doomed to fall.  It's just a matter of time.  A nation's leader can't be responsible for killing thousands of citizens, both militants and civilians, as well as displace millions of terrorized people who are living in international refugee camps and still continue to have credibility. In fact, President Assad has no place to hide or he would already be there.  Moreover , Russian President Putin has probably already "fired" Assad (as a proxy boss), by jumping into the diplomatic arena to help deflect a US military attack against the Syrian government's use of Sarin poison gas, to kill over a thousand civilians, including many children. A good news reporter should ask whether or not President Putin even contacted President Assad before leaping to Kerry's serendipitous offer of a diplomatic solution.  
One has to wonder, did Assad learn about the Putin intervention through the news? Or, did Putin call Assad before making news about the potential diplomatic intervention, first? News reporters should be asking this question; but, it seems, our news media continues to report polarizing views rather than informative news. Why does it matter? Because, if Putin offered an intervention before consulting Assad, it means there is undue influence over the Syrian president and he isn't in charge of his own nation.  It's possible Assad isn't in charge of Syria.  Certainly, Assad's random responses to Charlie Rose on CBS News were not those of a many who knows exactly what's going on around him. So, who is in charge of Syria? That's the salient question.   

If Assad is guilty of genocide, with proof of allowing for the displacement of millions of Syrians and killing over a thousand people with poison gas, then he must be removed as the nation's leader, right away.  Then, of course, the problem is, who replaces Assad?  Therein is a problem, probably, even more serious than the current crises.  In fact, if President Putin jumped into the diplomatic solution, offering for Assad to give up chemical weapons, then he has enormous influence over Syria. Perhaps, however, Iran is the nation propping up Assad, for the purpose of deflecting attention away from Iranian nuclear armament. In this case, the world has a problem with yet another nuclear nation hiding behind the Syrian crises. Perhaps, the worst situation is that both Russia and Iran are the controls behind the Syrian curtain of authority. Between Iran, Russia and Syria, the trio of terror will soon become impossible to deal with, especially, after the 2014 Olympic games in Sochi, Russia are over and Putin won't have to deal with international public relations anymore.

In the likely event Assad is already a puppet leader, ie, a surrogate for Putin to control the Middle East and a deflector for Iran's nuclear program, then the bigger problem is far more serious than the horrid use of poison gas on civilians.  A Russian block is in place to obstruct peace in the Middle East, except on Russia's terms.

Additionally, Syria gives Russia a long coveted access to a year round open sea port. Therefore, President Assad may well be a stepping stone for Putin to tramp on as he, potentially, annexes Syria for Russia's strategic interests.

All of the above are somewhat hypothetical, but certainly possible considerations in the developing reality for the future of Syria.

Regardless of what happens with President Putin's diplomatic initiative or President Obama's intention to retaliate against Assad, the fact is, the end of this saga will see a regime change in Syria. But, the bad news is, the people of Syria are living in a state of delusion if they believe a regime change will bring peace.  In fact, who or what follows after President Assad is dumped is a terrifying unknown.  

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