Senator Susan Collins is the only Republican among the entire New England Congressional delegation

Maine Sen. Susan Collins is the only New England Republican left in Congress
Senator Susan Collins’ reelection fight in the age of Trump

The four-term Republican is facing a formidable opponent, anger over her support for Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Democrats energized over the president’s divisive politics.  Report by Burgess Everett published in Politico.  

Vox.com reported by Ella Nilsen - Maine voters like Pam Cunningham are Senator Susan Collins’s worst nightmare.  Cunningham, a business owner living in the coastal town of East Boothbay, voted for the Maine Republican senator when she was last up for reelection in 2014. But, since Donald Trump was elected in 2016, Collins’s moderate Republican image has taken a beating among a subset of Maine voters. Cunningham is ready to abandon Collins. Since 2016, she joined a progressive grassroots group called Mainers for Accountable Leadership, where she’s now a co-director.POLITICO, in OLD TOWN, Maine — Shortly after Barack Obama won and Susan Collins was reelected in 2008, the president invited her to the White House to pitch the economic stimulus. It was not particularly subtle.

Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins is preparing to run for a fifth term in 2020

(Maine Writer - Arrogance and political over confidence!)

“He said: ‘You know Susan, they really like me in Maine. And I did really well in the last election,’” Collins recounted over sandwiches at the Governor’s Restaurant in Eastern Maine. “I practically had to bite my tongue in two to avoid saying: ‘They do like you Mr. President, but they liked me better.’”

For Collins to win a fifth term, she needs Mainers to again like her more than the current White House occupant. A whole lot more.

The 66-year-old political giant is facing the race of her life despite her universal name recognition and bipartisan reputation. President Donald Trump is targeting Maine as a battleground while his divisive politics has cleaved the state in two, and Collins has to share the ticket with him.

Maine Democrat and Legislative Speaker of the House, Sara Gideon, from Freeport is campaigning for 2020, to defeat Senator Susan Collins

National Democrats, meanwhile, are backing Sara Gideon as her likely opponent, a battle-tested statehouse speaker who raised more than $1 million in the week after her launch.

Projected to be the most expensive in Maine’s history, the race is of imperative importance for party leaders and the Senate institution itself. With scarce opportunities elsewhere, Senate Democrats essentially need Gideon to win to gain a minimum of three seats and the majority. In the Senate, a Collins loss would be a potentially fatal blow to the reeling center of the chamber.

Faced with a cavalcade of challenges, Collins is projecting confidence while balancing her meticulous senatorial approach with an unmistakable shift into campaign mode. 

Collins, who is sitting on $5 million in campaign cash, bashes Gideon as a candidate who has “outsourced her campaign” to Washington and her longtime aides are gearing up for a knife fight.

Collins’ approval ratings, though, dipped below 50 percent in one poll. Republican strategists say they have her above 50 percent but acknowledge her unfavorables are up.

Collins is self-aware of her plight. She knows supporting Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh cost her and laments that decision helped bring the permanent campaign to Vacationland.

“Have I lost some votes because of my decision to support Justice Kavanaugh? Yes, I have. And I’m sad about that because I explained in great depth my decision-making,” Collins said. But “there still is an appreciation in Maine for someone who looks at the facts of an issue, votes with integrity and independence.”

Party leaders are openly preoccupied with Collins’ fate.

“We’re paying a lot of attention to it. She’s made some tough votes, she stepped up big time and did a very courageous thing ... on the Kavanaugh vote. But there’s a political price that comes with that,” acknowledged Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). “She’s the person that can keep that seat.”

Collins hasn’t officially announced her campaign, though it would take a seismic event for her not to run.

“No doubt that this is going to be a tough race,” Collins said. But “those who are eager to count me out … should take a look at [2008], where I had a truly, very worthy superior candidate.”

That’s a swipe at Gideon, an energetic 47-year-old mother of three who is eager to contrast Collins’ efficacy in the Trump era with her own role battling former Gov. Paul LePage and pushing progressive legislation. The race is already getting ugly.

Gideon says Mainers are “worried” that special interests are coming before them and suggests Collins stood by while thousands lost their lives to gun violence. Collins and her team see Gideon as a hypocrite on big money in politics and are ready to whack her for corporate donations and a campaign finance violation.

The tense atmosphere is not what Maine, or Collins, is used to. The Trump Era has frustrated a senator known for rigorous research, mild manners and a belief the Senate can still solve problems.

She toils away on health care legislation, then is confronted with the president’s tweets. She voted against the Obamacare repeal, then the administration backed a lawsuit aimed at sweeping the health law away.

Collins herself has no real relationship with the president, though she speaks with his daughter Ivanka Trump on topics like family leave and apprenticeships. More than anything, Collins resents the notion that she hasn’t stood up to the president.

“It’s never enough. Never. For those who truly hate the president, I’m never going to be able to do enough for them,” Collins said between bites of banh mi, which she frugally tucks into a to-go container, before hurrying to a paper mill reopening. “I get tired of the ‘she speaks but doesn’t act.’”

Collins supported Trump’s Supreme Court nominees, but voted against Betsy DeVos as Education secretary and tried to override many of Trump’s vetoes. She took the lead on disapproving of Trump’s emergency declaration at the border.

Senate Democrats like working with Collins but would much rather have the majority. And to some, she’s in the way.

“This isn’t about Susan,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “You’ve got to make winning back the Senate a priority.”

Unlike most Senate races in 2020, Collins’s bid is a true referendum on her. Maine is not transient and everyone knows her.

Collins, one of two true GOP moderates along with Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, is hyperfocused on Maine issues as the chairwoman of the Senate’s Special Committee on Aging (demographically, Maine is the oldest state) and is often a lonely, if reserved, critic of Trump.

Collins’ strategy appeals to the middle. But Trump's polarity gives Gideon an opening.

“She has voted with her party more than she ever has before. And I think that is worth repeating and remembering,” Gideon said over coffee in left-leaning Portland. “Part of the whole aspect of Mainers feeling left behind by Sen. Collins is she can not decisively say where she is on an issue.”

Gideon asserts that Collins is no longer the senator she once was, after her support for Trump’s nominees, the tax cuts that endangered Obamacare and her lack of a firm stance on Trump’s reelection. No matter how you ask about Trump’s 2020 campaign, Collins answers the same: “Not going to go there.”

“There will come a time when she’s going to have to make decisions and really tell people where she stands,” Gideon said.

Yet Gideon isn’t firm on hot-button issues herself. Eager to avoid the GOP’s “socialist” label, she won’t explicitly endorse Medicare for All or the Green New Deal but says climate change and universal health care access are priorities.

She doesn’t say whether she would support Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer as leader and doesn’t have a “fully developed position” on expanding or reforming the Supreme Court.

“You’re asking me questions that my six-week-old campaign self has not quite gotten to yet,” Gideon said, when asked about the legislative filibuster, which Collins defends.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed Gideon shortly after she launched her campaign, snubbing liberal candidate Betsy Sweet. Backed by the progressive Justice Democrats, Sweet says Gideon’s strategy is misguided.

“Careful, try not to say too much, don’t ruffle any feathers,” Sweet said of Gideon. “People are hungry for real policy and they’re hungry for real ideas.”

But national Democrats argue Gideon has put the race on the map as much as Trump, with DSCC Chairwoman Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) calling her “a tremendous candidate.”

It will take more than that to beat Collins, who has always been able to balance the divergent needs in the “Two Maines,” split between a pair of congressional districts drifting in opposite directions.

Prosperous Southern Maine has tourists, Portland’s booming restaurant scene and big-city transplants. The feeling there: Collins is toast.

The rest of the state largely resides in the sprawling Second Congressional District. This is Trump Country with shuttered paper mills, endless forests and economic challenges. It’s also the heart of Collins’s support.

At the Governor’s Restaurant, she’s stopped repeatedly by fawning diners. These voters are decidedly not on Twitter fuming about their senator. But they’ll feel the effects of the resistance against Collins soon enough.

Advertising Analytics projects spending in the race at $55 million, easily the most expensive in Maine history. Outside groups are already softening up Collins.

“People in Maine do not like billionaires coming to our state to take out our senator,” said former GOP state Sen. David Trahan.

Collins adds: “I have never seen the far left as energized."

The left is only one piece of Maine’s intricate political puzzle, a state that never neatly breaks down party lines. A prime example: moderate Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, a former Collins staffer, will stay neutral in the race.

“I haven’t met anyone who works harder than her to be honest with you. And obviously I’m working hard to try to follow in her footsteps,” he said of Collins.

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who endorsed Collins in 2014, won’t say whether he will do so again. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) endorsed Collins, earning himself an angry call from Schumer.

“I can’t believe everyone’s so damn hypocritical. She’s the one person I work with all the time,” Manchin said. “Why would you not expect me to do that?”

“Yes,” said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), when asked if she’s conflicted. “I’m very fond of her. I consider her a friend. I trust her. I believe she’s a good senator.”

For others, winning the majority is far more important than playing nice in the Senate’s shrinking center. Collins said she supports Mitch McConnell as GOP leader, which is all some colleagues need to hear.

“Any vote to put Mitch McConnell in the leader’s chair is a vote to stifle climate action, period, end of story. It’s pretty categorical,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.).

Collins says some of the people rooting for her defeat are the same ones on the Senate floor each day, eager to speak with her.

“I have literally a line of people waiting to talk to me about: ‘Could you co-sponsor this bill, could you sign this letter?’” she said. “Clearly, my support is valued.”

In 2020, Trump will likely win an electoral vote in Maine’s Second District but lose the state overall. That means Collins probably needs thousands of voters to split their tickets. And the dynamics are anything but fixed.

Republicans harbor long-shot hopes that the Democratic primary gets ugly, aiming to elevate Sweet and put Gideon at odds with liberals. And Collins faces a potential time bomb with the Obamacare lawsuit, which originated from the GOP’s tax bill that killed the law’s individual mandate. She’s confident Kavanaugh will not strike down the entire law, which could fundamentally alter the race.

Rep. Tom Allen (D-Maine), whom Collins handily dispatched in 2008, admitted she maintains an edge despite the massive national campaign against her. But he drew a parallel to another famous Maine Republican senator, not entirely favorable.

“Someone that’s elected four times to the U.S. Senate has got to be a favorite,” he said. But Margaret Chase Smith “ran for a fifth term. And she got beat. Susan Collins is running for a fifth term. And I think the chances of her being beaten are pretty good.”

Secretary Pompeo ~ smiling in the face of murder

'That grip and grin will come back to haunt him': Pompeo justifiably takes heat for friendly Saudi sit-down

"Would a little more solemnity have harmed his mission?” asked Jon Alterman, a Middle East analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It might have helped it.”

The Week reports:  There's a growing consensus in Washington and Europe that Saudi Arabia, specifically Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is culpable in the Oct. 2 disappearance and likely murder of U.S.-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. And the latest group signaling its conviction of the crown prince's guilt is the U.S. intelligence community, The New York Times reports.
A Politico opinion by Nahal Toosi

Pressed on why he might believe Riyadh’s future findings, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declined to acknowledge the possibility that Jamal Khashoggi was killed, describing him instead as “missing.” | Leah Millis/AFP/Getty Images

The secretary of state's amiable tone toward the Saudis in public following the suspected murder of a journalist has drawn criticism.

Just this week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo published an essay arguing that one major reason President Donald Trump’s foreign policy vision will succeed is its “moral clarity.”

But then there he was: The same Mike Pompeo, in the same week, smiling and chatting amiably with Saudi leaders suspected of orchestrating the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. 

Pompeo expressed confidence that the Saudis will conduct a legitimate probe into the case and hold wrongdoers accountable — a stance many in Washington found hard to believe.

Pompeo’s performance can be chalked up to any number of factors, including the inevitable trade-offs most U.S. administrations find they must make in dealing with unsavory allies who happen to be key to American interests. But it was also an example of Pompeo — a former Army tank commander who loves tough talk — toeing the Trump line, even if it risks tarnishing his image.

The approach, particularly Pompeo's friendly tone toward the Saudis in public, has drawn criticism from the foreign policy establishment, Democrats and newspaper editorial boards, with some warning he could be complicit in a Saudi cover-up.

“Would a little more solemnity have harmed his mission?” asked Jon Alterman, a Middle East analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It might have helped it.”

Added a Democratic congressional aide: “That grip and grin will come back to haunt him.”

Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident who was living in the U.S. and writing for The Washington Post, is alleged to have been killed and dismembered after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2 to obtain marriage-related documents.

Just this week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo published an essay arguing that one major reason President Donald Trump’s foreign policy vision will succeed is its “moral clarity.” (MaineWriter~ "Ugh!", like Kim JungUn and Vladimir Putin are examples of "moral clarity!" HELLO?) 

But then there he was: The same Mike Pompeo, in the same week, smiling and chatting amiably with Saudi leaders suspected of orchestrating the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Pompeo expressed confidence that the Saudis will conduct a legitimate probe into the case and hold wrongdoers accountable — a stance many in Washington found hard to believe.

Pompeo’s performance can be chalked up to any number of factors, including the inevitable trade-offs most U.S. administrations find they must make in dealing with unsavory allies who happen to be key to American interests. But it was also an example of Pompeo — a former Army tank commander who loves tough talk — toeing the Trump line, even if it risks tarnishing his image.

The approach, particularly Pompeo's friendly tone toward the Saudis in public, has drawn criticism from the foreign policy establishment, Democrats and newspaper editorial boards, with some warning he could be complicit in a Saudi cover-up.

“Would a little more solemnity have harmed his mission?” asked Jon Alterman, a Middle East analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It might have helped it.”

Added a Democratic congressional aide: “That grip and grin will come back to haunt him.”

Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident who was living in the U.S. and writing for The Washington Post, is alleged to have been killed and dismembered after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2 to obtain marriage-related documents.

Turkish officials have alleged a 15-member Saudi hit squad targeted him, possibly for criticizing the powerful Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. Turkish media on Wednesday published details from purported audio recordings that indicated the Saudi hit team severed Khashoggi’s fingers while interrogating him, then later beheaded and cut up his body.

The crown prince and Saudi King Salman have denied any knowledge of what happened. But while at first Saudi leaders insisted Khashoggi had left the consulate safely, more recently they’ve been floating another theory: that the Saudis sent to either interrogate or abduct Khashoggi went too far.

The case, and Saudi officials’ shifting narratives about it, has angered Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill, who already were unhappy with a range of Saudi actions, including their killing of civilians in the war in Yemen. U.S. lobbyists and business leaders have also been abandoning their Saudi ties in the wake of the Khashoggi incident.

Trump and his aides have been more cautious in their response, keeping in mind that Riyadh is a major part of their plans to weaken the regime in Iran while keeping oil markets stable. Trump has also balked at halting U.S. arms sales to the Saudis, saying it would hurt U.S. jobs.

From the start, Pompeo and the State Department have been hesitant to discuss the case. Pompeo issued his first statement about the journalist almost a week after Khashoggi vanished. The statement noted that were “conflicting reports” about what may have happened.

Since then, Pompeo and the department have largely stuck to the line that the U.S. doesn’t know much about what happened and have called for more facts to come out before making a judgment on the incident.

By State Department standards, observers say the U.S. tone has been mild for what is a growing diplomatic crisis. 

For example, while the department keeps saying it is “concerned” about Khashoggi’s fate, it has not raised the verbal heat as it traditionally would by saying it is “deeply concerned."

The State Department’s readouts of Pompeo’s meetings in Saudi Arabia and Turkey this week also don’t focus strictly on Khashoggi — whose killing was presumably the reason Trump dispatched his chief diplomat to the region. Instead, the readouts describe the discussions as covering a range of bilateral issues, including Syria. In at least one case, Khashoggi is the last topic listed.

And while a number of U.S. lawmakers, as well as Khashoggi’s family, have called for an independent investigation, Pompeo seems content to let the Saudis do their own probe, even thanking the Saudi king for his commitment to a “transparent” investigation.

The Washington Post wrote a blistering editorial about Pompeo’s friendly demeanor alongside the Saudi crown prince, saying Pompeo “appeared less intent on determining the truth than in helping the de facto Saudi ruler escape from the crisis he triggered.”

Pressed about why he might believe Riyadh’s future findings, Pompeo declined to acknowledge the possibility that Khashoggi was killed, describing him instead as “missing.” 

Pompeo also stressed the many interests the United States has in Saudi Arabia.

“I do think it’s important that everyone keep in their mind that we have lots of important relationships — financial relationships between U.S. and Saudi companies, governmental relationships, things we work on together all across the world — efforts to reduce the risk to the United States of America from the world’s largest state sponsor of terror, Iran,” Pompeo told reporters. “The Saudis have been great partners in working alongside us on those issues.”

Asked whether the Saudis had mentioned whether Khashoggi was dead or alive, Pompeo said: "I don't want to talk about any of the facts. They didn't want to either, in that they want to have the opportunity to complete this investigation in a thorough way."

Pompeo denied he was giving Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt. “It’s reasonable to give them a handful of days more to complete it so they get it right, so that it’s thorough and complete,” he said.

Since joining the Trump administration, Pompeo has often downplayed or denied any potential differences between him and the president. He’s supported Trump on just about every front.

He has defended the president after Trump claimed that North Korea no longer poses a nuclear threat to the United States, despite Pyongyang taking what experts say are few, if any, tangible steps toward denuclearization. The secretary also has gone along with Trump's desire to slash the number of refugees resettled in the United States, and he has not spoken out against Trump's efforts to slash the State Department's budget.

Trump this week went further than Pompeo in trumpeting Saudi leaders' talking points on Khashoggi, repeatedly pointing out that the crown prince and king denied any knowledge of what happened. The president even likened the case to the sexual assault accusations against Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings for the Supreme Court.

“Here we go again with, you know, you’re guilty until proven innocent,” Trump told The Associated Press in an interview released Tuesday night. “I don’t like that.”

Pompeo’s approach to the Khashoggi murder may be another example of the secretary of State choosing to stay in lockstep with the president.

It could also be part of his desire to stay tough on Iran.

Pompeo has long been a hawk on Iran. While serving in the House, Pompeo repeatedly slammed the Obama administration for agreeing to a nuclear deal with Iran — a deal Trump quit — casting the former president as naive for believing Iran would curb its nuclear program.

Since joining the Trump team, Pompeo has made weakening the Iranian regime a top goal — one that could shape his legacy at Foggy Bottom.

In the essay in Foreign Affairs posted this week, Pompeo lays out the administration’s strategy against Iran, calling for a maximum pressure campaign of sanctions and public exposure of the Iranian leadership’s brutality and corruption. Pompeo wrote that Trump’s approach to Iran involves a “moral confrontation” that he likened to how Ronald Reagan approached the Soviet Union.

Pompeo’s decision last month to certify to Congress that the U.S. should keep supporting the Saudis in Yemen, despite allegations they had committed war crimes, was believed to hinge in part on maintaining Saudi cooperation on Iran.

The Saudis have their own rivalry with Iran, making it unlikely a rupture with the U.S. would lead Riyadh to embrace Tehran. But the timing is critical now: Pompeo is working to ensure that the Saudis will fill any gaps in the energy market after Nov. 4, when a series of punishing U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports takes effect.

While there may be discomfort on the right about the forgiving tone Trump and Pompeo are taking with Saudi Arabia, there have been no calls to completely break off ties with the strategically important country.

Asked on Wednesday to discuss Pompeo’s performance in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Republican lawmakers largely sidestepped the question.

“We have a tremendous relationship with the Saudis. They’re important to us, we’re important to them, but we have to be honest and watch these things closely,” said Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah.

The U.S. has to think about its long-term interests, said GOP Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana.

“You’re a dream weaver if you think we can keep a lid on the Mideast by turning to all of the countries there and saying, ‘You’re all a bunch of authoritarian despots and we’re not going to talk to you anymore,’” Kennedy said. “You do that and you’re going to create a vacuum. And I can tell you who’s coming in: Russia, and China and a lot of other countries.”

Burgess Everett and Elana Schor contributed to this report.

MaineWriter post script ~ First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

~Martin Niemöller