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Thursday, January 17, 2019

Tribalism and Trumpzism - echo opnion in the Reno Gazette-Journal

There are many reasons to be optimistic about 2019. But.....

Trump isn’t one of them. 


Toxic politics, tribalistic idiots, climate change and #me-me-me’ers are killing us. But there are millions of good people worldwide. We have a beautiful country to live in, if we don’t destroy it first.

There are two kinds of economists; those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. Predictions are accurate for one news cycle, then circumstances repeatedly change. Trump’s actions continually and radically alter paradigms, causing worldwide angst and fear.

When Trump was elected, 84 percent of allied populations were hopeful. Now it’s 16 percent and difficult to see how it’ll improve. Predicting economic peril in the Age of Trump isn’t difficult. For example, an unexpectedly severe El Nino and widespread drought will result in diminished food production across much of the world. With trade patterns already disrupted by a tariff war, hunger will spread; refugees will start moving.

We’ll need three times the amount of food to feed the populace by 2030. If past is prologue, we know how our leaders will respond. Putin will opt to keep his wheat off the global market, using wheat as a political weapon. Trump must decide whether to open markets or bar exports as part of an “America First’’ food policy. Trump will use wheat as a financial weapon.

The past week exemplifies Trump’s destructive effect on competent government and it should give all Americans pause. Our political system is in chaos and we have no control on either side. It’ll take strong leadership to guide us through these crises; crises born from unforced errors and comical pratfalls.

Notwithstanding the shutdown, Trump’s Deep State is intentionally understaffed. Sure many government employees are overly officious and we often feel oppressed, but destroying the system is the wrong approach. Repair it; don’t destroy it. By design and neglect, Trump is tearing apart the very order that keeps this railroad moving. We don’t need to tear it down; we need better leadership.

There are those who benefit personally, thus continue to support him. And there are those who believe he’s going to radically improve their lives. This has been the formula for all false prophets and autocrats throughout history. Trump is no exception.

Our social fabric cannot stand the tribalism, extremism and seething resentment on both sides. And when the social fabric falters, the economy fails. Tearing down the world order may seem politically advantageous to some, but the short- and long-term effects will be devastating.

We don’t like being the policeman of the world, but we are because it keeps us safe. Leading the world is not our goal; keeping us safe is. Trump’s presidency is not keeping us safe.

Mark Nissenbaum is an international economist.

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