This essay was published on the Facebook Page of Alan Caron:
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| Mr. Graham Platner and his wife Amy Gertner |
Say what you will about Mr. Graham Platner, the Maine Democratic candidate for Senate, but here's what strikes me, as a longtime observer and participant in Maine elections.
Obviously, the guy has been under-estimated since day one. He wasn't supposed to compete against a sitting Governor. He was too far left for Maine. He wasn't supposed to stir up the state with over 80 packed town meetings, the likes of which I've never seen in a primary in Maine.
Then he wasn't going to survive the tattoo and the angry online posts. He certainly wasn't going to survive the texting and the old girlfriends telling it all.
Tons of people with political experience, it seems, has misread this race. Mr. Platner actually pushed a sitting Governor out of the race in a Democratic primary. Try to find where that has happened before. How is it that all the insiders seemed to forget what an outsider campaign looks like? Or that having a party that is a 'big tent' means having a lot of different kinds of people in that tent, including ones that make you uncomfortable or don't look and sound like you?
Here's my take on why Platner seems to weather it all.
In fact, the guy is SAYING SOMETHING. He's saying something that people are hungry for. Not policies and programs. Not bipartisan patty cake. Strong action aimed at the roots of our economic and political problems. And he says it better than just about anybody.
Platner's acceptance speech on election night should be studied in communications and politics schools for the next decade. It ran for 22 minutes on national news channels, which is unprecedented. They just couldn't turn it off because it was compelling.
Whether you like it or not or agree with his politics, the guy is a force of nature. And that's what too many people are missing and many more people are looking for. And the people who are responding to his call couldn't care less about someone not using approved language. Heck, that's part of what they like, because that's someone closer to who they are.
Here's another thing they like. Platner said in his acceptance speech that if you believe in transformative change for the country, you have to believe in transformative change in individuals, and the idea of redemption.
Now, Republicans will do the same thing that Democratic insiders have done. They'll, of course, want to destroy anyone who dares to challenge the status quo. They'll measure election chances by the old playbook. They'll think politics today is just like it's always been. And they'll underestimate the distress that people are feeling who don't live in enclaves of comfortable life. It's a distress, by the way, that they promised to reduce in the last election but that has actually gotten worse.
Obviously, greater problem for Republicans is that they don't have an answer to what Platner is saying about the billionaires taking over and enriching themselves at the expense of everyone else. They don't have a response to the corruption of politics or the vacuuming of wealth from the bottom and middle to the top.
A year ago, ironically, Republicans were arguing for Trump and for the outsiders. They were the change agents, raging at the elites in Washington and everywhere else. Now, with Collins, they have to sell the status quo when nobody wants to hear it.
I tell my Republican friends 'don't underestimate this guy'. The working class guys agree. They hear it and they see it around them. And they like what he's saying too, even if they're not ready to tell their Republican friends. It's not complicated: they want change. We keep saying they're moving Right or they're moving Left. They aren't really doing either. They're just voting for whoever they feel can bring a better deal for people like them.
Right or wrong, they felt that Democrats had become a party of educated know-it-alls who not only couldn't hear working class people but actually thought that working class people, and especially working class men, were not enlightened enough or too dangerous to be welcome among Democrats.
Mr. is the antidote. He's hit the bullseye, and the people who have drifted from the Democratic party since Obama are paying attention. Those people will decide the election in November.
So now they'll be a lot of handwringing by some Democrats who should spend their time and energy on something far more productive - fighting to defeat Collins. And they'll be bold predictions by Republican operatives about how Platner will be crushed or how Collins always wins. But in disruptive and restive moments like this, that stuff doesn't win elections.
Too many Democrats have been consumed with the dangers for Platner. How about we take a minute to tally the dangers for Collins❓ She's in the worst election cycle for Republicans since the Nixon impeachment. She has a party that isn't nearly as energized as Democrats and which includes a sizeable number of voters who don't like her much. And in a contest over where Republican-leaning men go, she will certainly lose some of the base.
Worse, this election will be a referendum on Trump and she can't distance herself from Trump without incurring the wrath of MAGA or Trump himself.
Her biggest problems aren't among Republicans, though. The key to Collins success, over the years, is that she has always had these three things in place:
1. Republicans who didn't like her because she wasn't conservative enough or she was a woman, always held their noses and voted for her anyway.
2. She could always count on at lease 15% of Democrats to support her.
3. She's always gotten more than her share of Independents.
This year, she can't count on any of that. The number of Republicans unhappy with Trump and MAGA is growing. Some will not vote and others will vote Democratic. She will certainly lose support among Democrats and Independents because of her votes on Supreme Court nominees, cuts to health care and support for wars.
Like it or not, this is a miserable year to be a Republican. There's a wave coming and it's going to sweep out a lot of Republicans whether they're MAGA or not, or whether they voted for Trump 100% of the time or a more 'courageous' 95%, like Collins.
In fact, 'd argue that these are the worst conditions that Collins has run in, and against the toughest opponent she's ever faced. Because Mr. Platner has energy, with a message and his finger on the pulse of today.
And Senate Collins thinks talking about all the bridges she funded and how relevant she is in an irrelevant Congress is what people care most about. (Reality check, Maine property tax payers provided the base funding for all her pet projects, she has not provided sustainable revenue for any of what she throws federal money at.)
Strap yourself in, my friends. Maine is about the be The Show that people across the country will be watching and discussing. What happens here will help to answer not only who controls Congress next year, but also whether Democrats can stem the tide of working class drift toward Republicans. If they can, the country will have more confidence that Democrats should be given a chance, again, to lead the change that America has been asking for and so desperately needs. That will produce a Democratic President in 2028.
Labels: Alan Caron, Amy Gertner, Republicans